An Abacus Data poll released on Sunday suggests Canadians’ political opinions are showing their first signs of movement in months, with the Conservatives pulling slightly ahead of the Liberals as cost-of-living concerns overshadow other issues.According to the poll, if an election were held today 41% of decided voters say they would support the Conservatives, up one percentage point from early August. The Liberals have dropped four percentage points to 39%, the NDP and Bloc Québécois are tied at 7%, while the Greens and PPC sit at 2% each. Among Canadians certain to vote, the race tightens to a 41–41 tie between Liberals and Conservatives.The Conservatives continue to have a strong base in Alberta (62%) and the Prairies (52%), while Liberals maintain their lead in Ontario (46%) and Quebec (40%). British Columbia and Atlantic Canada remain divided between the two leading parties.Contrary to previous polling data, U.S President Donald Trump’s influence on Canadian political opinion is declining. Only 38% identified him as a top issue, down from 44% earlier in the summer. Abacus CEO David Coletto suggested this reflects “Canadian fatigue” and a shift in media attention away from U.S. politics..“After a spring and summer of stability in public opinion, we may be seeing signs of fluidity,” said Coletto. “The Carney government remains relatively popular, but affordability concerns are persistent, and the Conservatives are benefiting.”Coletto added that the receding influence of Trump in Canadian politics may hurt the Liberals, whose strengths are more pronounced internationally than on economic issues. “For those who believe Pierre Poilievre can’t become prime minister, the data doesn’t support that view,” he said.According to the poll, the top issue on Canadians’ minds is the rising cost of living, with 60% of respondents citing it in their top three issues facing Canada. .When asked which party is best equipped to handle their top concerns, respondents gave the Conservatives an edge on cost of living (39% vs. 27%), the economy (45% vs. 34%), and immigration (56% vs. 15%). The Liberals retain leads on climate change (37% vs. 9%) and handling Trump and his administration (56% vs. 21%).Approval of Carney’s government stands at 49%, slipping below the 50% mark for the first time since March. Disapproval rose slightly to 30%.Carney remains popular personally despite the growing support for the Conservatives, with 48% being favourable against 30% unfavourable. His strongest support comes from Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, baby boomers, and higher-income Canadians, maintaining the demographics that led to his election victory..Poilievre remains competitive despite being slightly unpopular, with 40% favourable and 42% unfavourable. His support skews higher among younger Canadians and men.The online survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults between Aug. 15 and 19, 2025.
