Canada’s population increased by 20,107 people, reaching 41,548,787, in the first quarter of 2025, according to a report from Statistics Canada (StatCan) released on Wednesday. “This was the smallest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the population decreased by 1,232 people in the wake of border restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said the report. “The first quarter of 2025 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth following announcements by the federal government in 2024 that it would lower the levels of both temporary and permanent immigration.” “This was the second-slowest quarterly growth rate in Canada since comparable records began in the first quarter of 1946, behind only the third quarter of 2020 and tied with the fourth quarter of 2014.” StatCan said international migration accounted for all of the population growth in the first quarter of the year, due to the natural increase (births minus deaths) of –5,628, which it said was “consistent with an aging population, a decreasing fertility rate and the higher numbers of deaths that typically occur during the winter months. Natural increase has been negative in every first quarter since 2022.” .Canada admitted 104,256 immigrants in the first quarter of 2025, the smallest number admitted in a first quarter in four years, reflecting a lower total permanent immigration target for 2025. However, prior to 2022, Canada had never welcomed more than 86,246 immigrants in a first quarter (in 2016), said the report. Canada’s two largest provinces by population, Ontario and BC, both saw decreases (-5,664 and –2,357 respectively), the largest quarterly losses in population in both provinces since the third quarter of 1951. Also losing populations were Newfoundland and Labrador (-115), Quebec (-1,013), and Yukon (-15). On the flip side, Alberta lead the country with an increase of 20,562 people in the first quarter. Also seeing increases were Prince Edward Island (+749), the Northwest Territories (+168) and Nunavut (+158). (Sorry Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but the StatCan report didn’t mention you.) The first quarter of 2025 saw the largest decline in non-permanent residents since the COVD-19 pandemic, said the report. “On April 1, 2025, there were 2,959,825 non-permanent residents in Canada, accounting for 7.1% of the total population. This was down from a peak of 7.4% of the population on October 1, 2024. The number of non-permanent residents has dropped by 61,111 since January 1, 2025,” it said. “The reduction in non-permanent residents in the first quarter was the largest decrease, apart from the third quarter of 2020 (-67,698).” .In a note, Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO, said a “major population adjustment” is now underway. “Non-permanent immigration to Canada remained negative in Q1 following caps on international students and temporary foreign workers put in place last year,” Kavcic wrote. “The process of normalizing this segment of the population is now well underway; Ottawa is targeting a 5% share from above 7% at the high. That implies further net outflows ahead, likely right through 2026.” Kavcic noted permanent immigration remained strong by historical standards, which he said was down from recent highs given reduced federal targets. The costs of living were likely the drivers of population shifts. “Affordability was probably the biggest reason for movement to Alberta and Atlantic Canada; but with Ontario prices and rents down, movement-for-affordability arbitrage might be running its course,” he wrote. Going forward, Canada's population growth will continue to slow, particularly with negative net births in the quarter, wrote Kavcic. “The process will take us back to conditions that more closely resemble those in the pre-pandemic decade: About 1% population growth; sturdy permanent immigration, some non-permanent resident flows where needed; but fewer babies,” he noted.
