New survey says Conservatives open up big lead over Liberals since carbon tax increase

In the strongest statement yet on the Conservatives’ electoral prospects the CPC has opened its biggest lead yet over the Trudeau government.If an election were held today, the Pierre Poilievre-led party would gather 44% of the vote compared to 24% for the Liberals. That’s up three points from March 31, while the Liberal tally is up one percentage point.The NDP, at 17% is down 2% while the Bloc Québécois at 6% — 29% in Quebec — is down one point. At 5%, the Green Party gained a single point while the People’s Party lost a point to settle at 3%..According to Abacus Data, all of the interviews were done following the increase in the federal carbon tax on April 1 and in the midst of several pre-budget announcements by Trudeau and his various cabinet cohorts. “Controlling for the independent effect of each of these is difficult but the before/after nature at least allows us to understand what has happened,” said Abacus Data CEO & Founder David Coletto. “This 20-point lead is the largest we have ever measured for the Conservatives and the first time the Conservative vote share has hit 44% nationally.”Conservatives are ahead everywhere except Quebec, where they are now statistically tied with the Liberals and BQ. Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 25 in BC and 19 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 18 points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the Liberals, BQ and Conservatives are all in a statistical tie for first.Abacus said the carbon tax increase on April 1 has not yet had any noticeable impact on Liberal support, but may have helped the Conservatives. “We will need a few more weeks of data to know this for sure. This means that political harm of the carbon tax may have run its course and things can't get too much worse for the Liberals.”.Despite promising to spend billions more and unveiling key parts of the budget while the survey was in field, the Liberals find themselves further behind in vote intention tracking than at any point. Further, Abacus said there has been no real change in support among younger Canadians — an audience the budget announcements have been focused on. That points to a leadership problem, rather than policy preferences, Coletto added.“That could change as more and more people become aware of the budget policies but as this data showed, there are a lot of people who can like a policy but still not like the government. This is where I think the Trudeau government finds itself right now.”.The federal government’s approval rating was unchanged from the last poll at 26% while 60% disapprove, the first time it has hit that level since the Trudeau government was elected in 2015.Impressions of Justin Trudeau are static — 58% have a negative impression of the prime minister while just 25% have a positive view, for a net score of -33. Moreover, 13% say their impression of Justin Trudeau is improving while 47% say it is getting worse. Another 40% say it is not changing. By contrast, Pierre Poilievre had a positive rating of 39% and 34% negative, for a net score of +5.Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged. Today, 34% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of -1..Overall, Canadians are more likely to think that Poilievre is better able to keep taxes as low as possible (50% vs. 20%), make life more affordable (47% vs. 24%), and manage the economy (47% vs. 25%). Poilievre also has an advantage over Trudeau on dealing with another President Trump administration (43% vs. 26%) and building more housing (43% vs. 29%).Justin Trudeau has the advantage over Poilievre on two issues – childcare (37% vs. 33%) and climate change (38% vs. 31%).