OTTAWA — Quebecers head to the polls Monday with the Parti Québécois overwhelmingly favoured to form the province’s next government, with uncertainty if it will be a minority or majority government.Final polls consistently place the PQ first, although its relatively modest popular-vote lead and a fragmented four-party opposition leave the 64-seat majority threshold uncertain.A Forum Research poll conducted over the final weekend placed the PQ at 26%, statistically tied with the Quebec Liberals at 25%. Éric Duhaime’s Quebec Conservatives followed at 21%, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and Québec solidaire were tied at 13%.Forum surveyed 1,183 Quebecers by automated telephone between October 3 and 4. .A separate Liaison Strategies poll showed a clearer PQ advantage. It placed the party at 28%, followed by the Liberals at 23%, the Conservatives at 20%, the CAQ at 18% and Québec solidaire at 10%.Liaison surveyed 1,000 Quebecers between October 2 and 3. Other final surveys produced similar results. Pallas Data placed the PQ at 29%, the Liberals at 24% and the Conservatives at 20%, while Léger recorded 29%, 25% and 20%, respectively.Taken together, the final polling leaves little apparent path for another party to win the most seats. Election forecasters regard a PQ government as nearly certain, but remain divided on whether it will control the National Assembly..The Writ’s final election tracker described the majority-versus-minority outcome as being on a “knife’s edge,” with a minority government marginally more likely.A final 127QC projection placed the PQ ahead in 65 ridings one more than required for a majority but its simulations produced an average of about 58 seats and a broad range of possible outcomes.The uncertainty results partly from how the opposition vote is divided. Liberal support is heavily concentrated in Montreal, Laval, the Outaouais and ridings with large English speaking populations.The Quebec Conservatives are strongest around Quebec City, Beauce and other regions, while the CAQ is fighting to preserve a reduced collection of seats it won during its two previous majority victories.The PQ benefits from a more geographically efficient vote among francophones and across several regions, allowing it to potentially win a majority with less than 30% of the provincewide vote..St-Pierre Plamondon has made Quebec independence central to the PQ program and promised a referendum during his first mandate.He has said, however, that the vote would not occur before U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office on January 20, 2029.“It must not be hijacked by the upheavals of American politics, nor by the outbursts of an unpredictable president, nor by fear campaigns,” St-Pierre Plamondon said when announcing the delay.Trump’s tariffs, annexation rhetoric and threats to use economic pressure against Canada have complicated the PQ’s argument for leaving Confederation.St-Pierre Plamondon faced an additional controversy during the final weekend after The Montreal Gazette reported that the PQ had sought a meeting with the U.S. State Department during the Canada-U.S. trade war.The U.S. Embassy reportedly said the State Department had informed American consulates in Quebec that the PQ wanted to meet U.S. officials. A meeting was reportedly contemplated for Washington in early March before the proposed trip was cancelled..St-Pierre Plamondon denied his party had formally sought or scheduled a meeting with the Trump administration.“It is inaccurate to say that the Parti Québécois attempted to set a date for a meeting with the United States Department of State,” he said Saturday. “It’s false.”He said the PQ had considered a U.S. mission but that no meeting was confirmed and no precise dates were discussed.The report forced St-Pierre Plamondon to spend part of the final campaign weekend defending himself against suggestions of a link to the Trump administration. Whether the controversy directly changed voting intentions cannot be measured, but it introduced an unwelcome issue as the PQ attempted to protect its lead.The PQ leader accused opponents of trying to associate him with Trump.“Try to stick me to the Trump administration when you know there was no meeting and there was no approach,” he said.The final Forum poll, conducted as the controversy emerged, produced the narrowest PQ lead among the major closing surveys.The CAQ, meanwhile, faces a historic defeat. Forum placed the party 28 percentage points below the 41% it received in 2022, and some projections show it at risk of losing nearly every seat.The Liberals are expected to form the official Opposition if the PQ wins, while the Quebec Conservatives appear positioned to enter the National Assembly with a significant caucus.Approximately 6.4 million people are registered to vote. Polling stations close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
