There’s no spring in the steps of Canadian home buyers during what is normally the busiest home buying season of the year, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released on Thursday.
"In a typical spring, Canada's housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity, especially in our most expensive markets," said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.
"That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America's war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security. For many Canadians, the headlines are hard to ignore."
First-time buyers are hesitant to enter the market, said Soper.
"First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment,” he said, adding "National trends may dominate the headlines, but regional realities define market conditions on the ground.
Here’s how the top four English speaking cities performed in the first quarter this year.
Calgary
"Calgary is experiencing a tale of two markets this spring, with notably different conditions across property types," said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark.
"In the single-family segment, new listings are down compared to this time last year, driving more competitive conditions. In contrast, the condominium and row-style segment is seeing rising inventory levels, as softer demand and increased rental availability give buyers more choice.”
The median price of a single-family home increased 0.8% year-over-year to $806,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.5% to $257,100.
Migration to Calgary remains prevalent, but has moderated compared to previous years, contributing to a slight decline in overall sales activity.
"Looking ahead, I expect a relatively balanced spring market overall, but with clear differences between the various property types," said Lyall. "Detached homes are likely to see tighter conditions and potential price growth, while the condo market will continue to offer more selection, with some downward pressure on prices."
Edmonton
"Edmonton's housing market is moving at a more measured pace compared to last year, with lower sales activity reflecting shifting market conditions rather than a lack of demand," said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate.
"Inventory has been building gradually, giving buyers more choice and contributing to more balanced market conditions."
The median price of a single-family home decreased 0.9% year-over-year to $521,800, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.9% to $205,600.
"As we move into the spring market, I expect activity will continue to pick up," said Shearer. "While migration has slowed slightly, Edmonton's strong economic fundamentals continue to support demand, with market activity likely to normalize into the summer months."
Greater Vancouver Area
"The market has been on a gradual upswing in recent months. In March, transaction volume increased, notably month-over-month, suggesting consumers are beginning to re-engage,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty.
“We're also seeing the return of multiple offers and stronger foot traffic and anecdotally, agents are reporting increased activity."
The median price of a single-family home decreased 5.7% year-over-year to $1,660,800, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.8% to $729,000.
In the city of Vancouver, the median price of a single-family home decreased 5.4% to $2,160,400, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.6% to $780,100.
"Signs are pointing to a stronger spring market, with rising buyer traffic, declining days on market, and renewed interest,” said Ryalls. “The key challenge will be aligning buyer and seller expectations, which will be critical to unlocking more consistent activity in the months ahead."
Greater Toronto Area
"The market is quietly building momentum, with home sales in Toronto rising modestly year-over-year. Price growth remains flat from one month to the next as elevated supply levels keep conditions balanced," said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty.
"The condo segment has seen a slight uptick in activity, driven largely by interest from first-time buyers and downsizers. At the same time, inventory throughout the city has been trending downward, as many sellers are choosing to relist later rather than accept lower offers. This signals a level of confidence among sellers, but it's also contributing to a degree of gridlock, with buyers and sellers waiting for more favourable conditions to move forward."
The median price of a single-family home decreased 4.5% year-over-year to $1,382,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 6.5% to $658,000.
In the city of Toronto, the median price of a single-family home decreased 9.7% to $1,528,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.8% to $660,600.
