The only way out of Canada’s housing affordability predicament is higher-density housing, while the condo model that has informed big-city construction is not likely to be the solution. The deputy chief economist at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Aled ab Iorwerth, promoted higher density housing during a presentation at the MortgageFest Canada conference in Toronto on Thursday. "I think there are short-term improvements in affordability because prices have come down a little bit, but I tie that more to the uncertainty in the macroeconomy rather than to any fundamental change in the housing system,” said ab Iorwerth. "So, because of that, if the economy were to, if the trade situation were to improve and the economy were to recover, I think we'd be back at affordability going in the wrong direction." The long-term solution to eliminating unaffordability is a lot more supply, said ab Iorwerth.” “That housing supply will have to be in higher density forms,” he said, adding, “I'm not sure the condo model will survive. Maybe something more like out of Singapore would, but I think higher density housing will have to be some form of solution.".The largest form of housing in Singapore is public housing apartments built and managed by the Housing and Development Board. They are high-rise government subsidized apartments, home to upwards of 80% of Singapore’s residents. ab Iorwerth comments come on the heels of the release of CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report which pegged the national supply/demand gap from 187,000 to 238,000 homes a year, a shortfall that is the reason Canada's affordability recovery could go into reverse. The City of Edmonton has closed its supply/demand gap to zero, said ab Iorwerth. "Edmonton, they have a lot faster approvals (and) it's easier to get stuff built,” he said. “And they have sprawl. But Edmonton is still relatively affordable, and people are moving to Edmonton." CMHC noted Edmonton was the only large Canadian market without a housing supply gap. During the session, Taylor Little, chief executive officer of Vancouver-based lender Neighbourhood Holdings, spoke about the west coast city’s housing market. "I think detached housing peaked in Vancouver, for example, in 1971, there (were) like 70,000 detached homes in Vancouver,” said Little. “Today there's 35,000. So your ability to even just acquire what's available is a lot lower." .Little added the high-density stock now being built still fails families in Canada, particularly in Toronto. "We're not building a lot of three (or) four-bedroom affordable condo units. Like, if you want a four-bedroom condo in downtown Toronto, it's crazy expensive,” he said. “You know, that's a 2,000-square-foot-plus unit. There's not that many of them. So, we're still not building even that type of housing stock in this high-density environment, and that's probably a change that needs to come." Dan Eisner, founder and chief executive officer of True North Mortgage, told Canadian Mortgage Professional after Toronto’s condo market made a bad start to 2026, "If you can find a quality condo which is 750 square feet-plus, then you're probably good." Results of a survey released at a recent mayoral debate showed one-third of Greater Toronto Area residents want to leave the region, with affordability a main reason. "This is the reality,” said Little. “That reality of living in downtown Toronto or close to downtown Toronto, the detached home, is only available for a real small sliver of people who are fortunate enough to have it. And that's not changing."
