A new national survey suggests many Canadians are concerned the United States could interfere in a possible Alberta independence referendum, with some fearing the return of President Donald Trump could bring attempts at annexation.According to a Research Co. poll, 45% of Canadians believe it is “very likely” or “moderately likely” that the US would try to annex Alberta if the province holds an independence vote.The concern comes amid growing speculation around Alberta’s future in Canada. A recent proposal by Alberta Prosperity Project aims to hold a referendum on whether the province “shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a Province of Canada.” This follows an Alberta government decision to lower the threshold for citizen-led initiatives. Under the new rules, proponents have 120 days to collect signatures from 10% of voters in the last provincial election to trigger a province-wide vote..Canadians are divided over whether the group behind the proposed referendum will succeed. Nationally, 39% believe they will reach the signature threshold, while 44% are doubtful. In Alberta, nearly half (48%) expect the campaign to meet its goal, while 34% disagree.Many also believe the federal government should step in. Almost half of Canadians (47%) say the federal government should not allow the referendum if the signatures are collected. Support for federal intervention is strongest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57%), followed by Ontario (53%), and Atlantic Canada (52%). .In Alberta, only 42% favour stopping the vote, while in Quebec support is even lower at 36%.Should Alberta voters choose independence, 56% of Canadians say the federal government should block the independence. Support for this stance is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (68%), followed by those aged 35 to 54 (54%). Younger Canadians aged 18 to 34 are less supportive, with only 47% backing federal action to prevent independence.The prospect of US involvement is a key concern. Alongside worries of annexation, 43% of Canadians believe the US might officially recognize Alberta’s sovereignty if a referendum succeeds. .Nearly one third (32%) think the US could recognize it even if the vote fails.Partisan divisions also emerged in the findings. A majority of NDP voters (50%), Liberal voters (48%), and Conservative voters (45%) think US annexation attempts are likely.The poll also explored broader attitudes toward national unity. Just 20% of Canadians believe the country would be better off as an American state, while 73% disagree, including 65% who “strongly disagree.” Younger Canadians are more open to the idea, with 32% of those aged 18 to 34 saying Canada would be better off as part of the US, compared to just 7% of those aged 55 and over..When asked if their own province would be better off as an American state, 21% of Canadians said yes, and that number climbs to 25% in Alberta. Another 29% of Canadians believe their province would be better off as an independent country. That view is most common in Alberta and Quebec, where 35% support the idea.Still, only 28% of Canadians overall would vote for their province to become its own country. Support is highest in Alberta and Quebec, at 34% each. Nationally, two thirds (66%) remain opposed to provincial independence..Trust in political leaders to manage unity issues also varies. Nationally, 67% trust the prime minister to make the best decisions on national unity. That compares to 59% for provincial premiers, and 51% for both the federal and provincial leaders of the Official Opposition.In Alberta, trust levels are more evenly spread. The prime minister holds a slight edge at 58%, followed closely by the federal opposition leader (56%), the provincial premier (55%), and the provincial opposition leader (53%).The online survey was conducted by Research Co. from June 1 to 3, 2025, and sampled 1,001 Canadian adults. The results carry a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
