Researchers at the University of Toronto say the drop in Canadian travel to the United States appears to be far greater than many initially believed. They point to a mix of tariff disputes, political tensions, economic uncertainty, and changing consumer attitudes that have led many Canadians to delay U.S. trips or choose alternative destinations instead.Using cellular activity data in major American metropolitan areas, the research team found Canadian travel activity had fallen by roughly 42%That decline is significantly larger than official border-crossing statistics, which showed about a 25% decrease. Researchers say this suggests Canadians are not only crossing the border less often, but may also be:taking shorter trips,visiting fewer cities,reducing business travel,or scaling back on multi-destination vacations.Among the U.S. cities experiencing some of the sharpest declines are Houston, Las Vegas, New York City, and San Francisco..Houston, the largest city in Texas, has long shared strong economic ties with Alberta’s oil and gas industry. The city depends heavily on corporate travel linked to the energy sector and has spent decades working closely with Calgary as one of North America’s leading energy capitals.Executives, engineers, geologists, investors, pipeline companies, and energy consultants have traditionally traveled frequently between the two cities for oil and gas conferences, corporate meetings, refinery and pipeline projects, and major annual energy events.However, the decline in Canadian travel is beginning to affect that relationship. Companies are reportedly reducing discretionary business travel and increasingly relying on virtual meetings instead of regular cross-border trips.The slowdown is also impacting Houston’s broader business economy, affecting downtown hotels, convention centres, airlines, restaurants, and industries connected to major energy conferences and corporate events..Las Vegas is widely known as the “Entertainment Capital of the World” because of its massive entertainment industry, famous Strip lined with luxury hotels, and reputation as a global hub for gambling and nightlife.Now, the city is becoming one of the clearest examples of the decline in Canadian tourism to the United States. Canadian visitors have long been considered especially valuable travelers, but demand for trips to Las Vegas has reportedly weakened significantly.Researchers say Las Vegas is particularly vulnerable because its economy depends heavily on discretionary spending. During periods of political tension, economic uncertainty, or negative consumer sentiment, leisure destinations like Vegas are often among the first trips travelers choose to cancel or postpone.The impact extends far beyond casinos and entertainment venues. The slowdown is also affecting key parts of the city’s tourism economy, including hospitality workers, rideshare services, restaurants, event organizers, airlines, and businesses that rely heavily on visitor spending throughout the year..New York City is seeing one of the most noticeable declines in Canadian tourism, as Canadians have traditionally been among the city’s most important and consistent international visitors.As travel demand weakens, Broadway theatres are experiencing softer international attendance, luxury retailers are losing cross-border shoppers, hotels are seeing fewer bookings, and entertainment venues are reporting lower spending from Canadian visitors.The slowdown is also affecting communities on both sides of the border. Upstate New York towns that depend heavily on shopping trips from Ontario and Quebec are seeing fewer visits to outlet malls, grocery stores, restaurants, and weekend destinations.Industries across the region — including hospitality, theatre, retail, transportation, and border-town businesses — are all feeling the economic impact of the decline in Canadian travel..San Francisco’s decline stands out because it is being driven less by traditional tourism and more by a slowdown in cross-border business and tech-sector travel.Alongside Silicon Valley, the city has long maintained strong economic ties with Canada’s growing technology industry. Executives, startup founders, software engineers, venture capitalists, consultants, and conference attendees who once traveled frequently between Canadian tech hubs and the Bay Area are now reducing non-essential travel or shifting more meetings online.San Francisco is particularly vulnerable because many of these trips fall under discretionary business travel — often one of the first expenses companies cut during periods of economic uncertainty.Corporate travelers also tend to generate high-value spending through extended hotel stays, expense-account dining, conference participation, and recurring business visits throughout the year. As a result, the decline is having a quieter but still significant economic impact across the Bay Area’s hospitality, technology, and convention industries.
