Winter officially arrives in December, but a frost settled on the largest housing markets in Canada in October. On the west coast, home sales in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) fell 10.2% year-over-year and 22.5% below the 10 year average for the region, with 2,024 sales, compared to 2,255 a year ago, according to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). New listings dropped 11.6% to 4,805, 1% above the 10-year average, while total active inventory fell 4.3% to 15,688, 24% above the long-term average. “October came with a few suspenseful distractions for buyers and sellers alike, with a somewhat surprising Bank of Canada rate hike and a snap provincial election among them,” said, Andrew Lis, GVR chief economist and vice-president of data analytics in Vancouver. “Between the onslaught of news coverage of the provincial and municipal elections, and the uncertainty surrounding where mortgage rates may be headed, it’s not entirely surprising that market participants took a step back in October to recalibrate.” The GVA's MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price fell 5.2% year-over-year to $1,068,600 in October, while the drop was 0.7% from September. The single-family detached homes sector took the largest hit, with a drop of 7% to $1,775,200 on 643 sales, while apartment sales fell 16.7% to 892, with the benchmark price falling 5.9% to $673,400..There were 468 sales in the attached homes sector, with a benchmark price of $1,006,500, down 5.5% year-over-year. The market-wide sales-to-active listings ratio was 13.4%, while in the apartment sector it was 13.5%, single-family detached at 11.6% and attached homes at 16.5%. “With (the Bank of Canada's) one quarter-point rate hike now behind us, and financial markets pricing in a slight chance of another quarter-point hike in December, it’s possible some buyers may step in to take advantage of rate holds that will soon be expiring,” said Lis. “Still, it’s a difficult quandary for buyers who’ve watched prices edge lower throughout the year, only to see those affordability gains eroded by higher borrowing costs.” "Whether the market ends 2026 on firmer ground remains the defining question that will set the tone for the New Year.” On the shores of what's left of Lake Ontario, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw sales of 5,603 a drop of 7.9% in October "as buyers contended with the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate increase in three years, piling fresh anxiety atop existing concerns over Canada-US trade negotiations and persistent inflation," according a report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)..New listings fell 11.9% year-over-year to 14,173, taking active listings to 25,098 properties. The average selling price declined 2.7% to $1,024,108, while TRREB’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 4.3%. “GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year,” said Jason Mercer, chief information officer at TRREB. “While borrowing costs have increased on the back of higher inflation, the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check.”The lower prices still present challenges said Toronto-based mortgage broker Micky Khaneka. “People are starting to pick up resales or newbuilds that are being built for closing at a much, much lower price than what they were initially sold for,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “But the clients who bought at those prices are still in a little bit of limbo because unless there are blanket appraisals from the banks, it’s very challenging for them to get appraisals on them.” TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld said international events are the most plausible route to renewed buyer confidence. “If a Canada-U.S. trade deal is reached, GTA residents could gain a clearer picture of the economic outlook,” said Steinfeld. “Combined with a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, this could help ease concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, strengthen consumer confidence and renew interest in homeownership as we move into 2027.” “Still, it’s a difficult quandary for buyers who’ve watched prices edge lower throughout the year, only to see those affordability gains eroded by higher borrowing costs.”
