What number would be considered 'passable' for Poilievre in upcoming leadership review?

CALGARY — In the lead-up to the Conservative Party of Canada's convention, which is being held in Calgary from Thursday to Saturday, the main talking point of the event will be the result of Pierre Poilievre's leadership review vote.The last Conservative Party leader to go through a leadership review was Stephan Harper, who got 84% in 2005 at the party's inaugural policy convention in Montreal.This now begs the question, what could be considered a solid approval number for Poilievre in the first Conservative leadership review in over 20 years?.In the recent episode of The Numbers podcast, pollster Philippe J. Fournier, when asked if he thought Poilievre would get over or under Harper's result of 84%, said he would bet on Poilievre to improve on his former boss's number."I'm going to take the over," said Fournier. "I think the Conservative delegation is behind Poilievre."Fournier's co-host, Éric Grenier, also said that he predicts that Poilievre will get over 84%.But Fournier contextualized his prediction with another comparison to Harper in 2004. "The Liberals... were expected to win in '04, and they only got a minority," said Fournier, speaking about the different climate that led to Harper's leadership review taking place."Whereas in '25 Poilievre was supposed to win. He had been leading by large margins in the polls, and then he fumbled at the finish line," Fournier continued. "The context is quite different here."Speaking about what could be constituted as a 'win' for Poilievre, Fournier said, "If Poilievre doesn't get 84%, if he gets 81% or 79%... I would not be surprised, but I'd be shocked (if that happened).""If that happens, then we're having a different kind of conversation about his leadership."This number of around 80% is further set as a benchmark by Western Standard senior columnist Nigel Hannaford, who says 80% and above would constitute party approval, but Stephen Harper's former chief speechwriter predicts he'll get around or over 90%.Poilievre also seems to have good support from his caucus, with quotes in a recent CTV article highlighting optimism from Conservative MPs..Support from the base, along with the fact that the vote will take place in Calgary, commonly understood to be the heartland of conservatism in Canada, seems to point to the notion that anything under 80% would definitely be viewed as a failure.This doesn't mean that an approval of 79% would constitute Poilevre's resignation, it would just signify that the Conservative leader would have some work to do to win back a good chunk of the base.It seems like, according to those in the know, Poilievre shouldn't have anything to worry about, but like with any vote, speculation matters very little until the final number is announced.

What number would be considered 'passable' for Poilievre in upcoming leadership review?

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