WATER WARS: Global experts sound the alarm for Canada

CALGARY — A new Global Foresight survey from the Atlantic Council suggests that while climate change is slipping as the world’s top perceived threat, tensions over water sources are intensifying.For the first time in the past three years, a smaller number of the roughly 450 geopolitical experts polled ranked climate change as the single biggest threat to global prosperity, with just 17% saying it tops the list, with fewer than one in five now believing climate change will drive international cooperation in the coming decade — a sharp drop from two years ago.However, now the same experts overwhelmingly expect the world to get hotter and, with that, nearly two-thirds (64%) forecast something even more alarming — wars to be fought over fresh water access within the next decade.For Canadians, that should sound the alarm.Canada holds roughly 20% of the world’s freshwater supply, much of which sits in the Great Lakes basin shared with the United States.Last year, an unusually warm winter left US mountain snow reserves down roughly 22% and, in that context, comments made by President Donald Trump on the 2024 campaign trail have again begun to raise questions.“You have millions of gallons of water pouring down from the north with the snow caps in Canada, and all pouring down and they have essentially a very large faucet,” Trump said around the time of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.“You turn the faucet and it takes one day to turn it, and it’s massive, it’s as big as the wall of that building right there behind you. You turn that, and all of that water aimlessly goes into the Pacific, and if they turned it back, all of that water would come right down here and right into Los Angeles.”.Farkas says Calgarians are living in a 'new reality' regarding water use.James Lautens of the NATO Association of Canada has warned that freshwater reserves are set to increasingly shape strategic decision-making in the near future.The Guardian reports that US-based think tank, the Pacific Institute, recorded 419 incidents of water-related violence in 2024 — nearly double the worldwide number in 2022.Water has already been targeted in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and tensions have flared along the Indus River between India and Pakistan in recent years.“We’re seeing more conflicts and they are multi-causal,” said Dr. Peter Gleick, a co-founder and senior fellow at the Pacific Institute, adding that while there are environmental factors at play, other factors such as “state failure and incompetent or corrupt governments, and lack of or misuse of infrastructure” play a critical role.The United Nations warns global freshwater demand could exceed supply by 40% by 2030 and, earlier this year, the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health declared the world has entered an era of “water bankruptcy.”Against that backdrop, Canada’s position looks enviable as well as precarious.The country’s abundant resources offer it leverage but also possible vulnerability.In 2024, Canada committed to investing $750 million to protect the freshwater resources shared between it and the US..Alberta energy report shows record spending and rising oil, gas reserves.However, the Liberal government’s investment was $250 million short of the initial $1 billion pledge to protect those resources, while the Americans invested more than $50 billion to protect and expand their water infrastructure.Water security is now beginning to intersect with defence policy.In recent years, Ottawa has announced it will embark on a significant military buildup, committing to higher defence spending, modernizing existing partnerships such as NATO, investing in Arctic operations, and acquiring new fighter jets and naval assets.As global demand rises, water becomes not just an environmental asset but a geopolitical one, particularly in the current, uncertain political climate.The Liberal government’s hopes at military modernization may be aimed at defending sovereignty, but sovereignty in the 21st century increasingly looks like it will mean control over water.Ashley Wallis, Associate Director at Environmental Defence, has warned there is “no economy or sovereignty without freshwater.”“Ninety-one per cent of people in Canada believe it’s important for Canada’s governments to protect fresh water and defend freshwater security,” Wallis said.“Defending its future and restoring and maintaining its health must be a top priority for governments of all political stripes across all borders.”The pressing question now is not whether water becomes strategic but whether Canada is prepared to defend and manage it in an increasingly fractured world.

WATER WARS: Global experts sound the alarm for Canada

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