Hope you have your AC ready..That’s because climate models are predicting a scorcher of a summer this year in northern latitudes, including, but not limited to, Western Canada. We can be so lucky..Despite a cold spring, blamed on the aptly named La Niña, the US government’s National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) is predicting this summer could be a record breaker in northern climes. . La Niña .You may not have noticed if you lived in Calgary and environs, but NASA and NOAA along with the Japanese Metrological Agency and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service all confirmed March 2023 was the second hottest on record after 2016..That was collectively blamed on human-caused climate change that triggered the strongest El Niño ever recorded — which is shaping up to be even stronger than it was in 2016, the last time prognosticators went into a tizzy..The rapid advancement is due to rising sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, according to NOAA satellite data. By comparison, winter temps on the prairies had been held in check by a three-year La Niña that had been keeping ocean temperatures cool.. El Niño .According to its website: during normal conditions, Pacific trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. .To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths in a process called “upwelling.” El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that break those normal conditions scientists call the “El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.” . Global warming .According to NOAA, both El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies. Episodes of El Niño and La Niña typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years. Events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don’t occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.. La Niña typically results in cooler weather, while her bigger bro is the opposite. .And apparently, that’s all about to bust loose. As a result, NOAA went from ending a La Niña warning at the beginning of March to calling an El Niño watch just one month later..After only three months of data, NOAA forecasters said they are more than “60% sure” 2023 will rank among the two hottest years on record..“Based on current anomalies and historical global annual temperature readings, it appears it's virtually certain 2023 will be a top 10 year, consistent with a strong propensity since 1988 for recent years to be initially ranked as a top 10 year.” .Its calculations suggest:.< 50.8% chance of warmest year< 96.5% chance of a top 5 year> 99.5% chance of a top 10 year95% confidence interval of 1st to 7th warmest year on record.. For some — most Calgarians, for example — it couldn’t come soon enough. Temperatures are forecast to rise through the weekend, hitting 21 degrees C on Saturday rising to a balmy 27C by next Thursday.. Global warming anomalies
