Ukraine will not get F-16s. Ukraine will not get F-16s. Ukraine will not get F-16s..How many times, have you heard that, over the last six months. No way, no how, because it might escalate things with Russia..Well guess what, folks. They will get them. I make that prediction now. The situation has changed, and it’s now only a matter of time..Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy — who got a rock star welcome at the British parliament this week — has gotten most of what he wanted. Tanks have been approved, and are on their way. Ukrainian crews are training, or will be training. According to Breaking Defense, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has formally requested British Secretary of Defence Ben Wallace to look into which RAF combat jets could be supplied to the Ukraine Air Force, following an announcement that London will offer to train Ukrainian fighter pilots for the first time..The move to transfer fighter jets did not appear imminent however, as Sunak said it’s intended to serve as a “long-term solution rather than a short-term capability.”.Across the pond, a contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, Politico reported..President Biden, so far, has balked at the move. So far..Following the usual script, the Biden administration is saying no — but officials hasten to say privately that no is probably temporary, the New York Times reported..“We are constantly talking to the Ukrainians, and we are constantly talking to our allies and partners about capabilities that they need,” John F. Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman told reporters..But American and European officials say it is more likely that such transfers would come from Denmark or the Netherlands, the NYT reported..The Dutch cabinet would consider a request from Kyiv for F-16s with an “open mind,” the Dutch news site NL Times quoted Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra as saying last month..The Netherlands has around 40 F-16s, and is transitioning to the more advanced F-35 fighter (also made by Lockheed Martin,) so sending some of its F-16s to Ukraine would make sense, American officials said..Col. Yuri Ignat, the chief spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, recently told Air Force Magazine that Ukraine has at least 30 pilots with sufficient English-language skills, as well as maintainers, ready to travel to the United States for training if an F-16 deal can be agreed upon..That said, and the momentum changing, there is one major issue that no one is talking about. Just how feasible is it to get pilots trained not just to fly, but also to fight in the F-16?.Experts say, it’s not like jumping into a new rental car, and heading out... winging it all the way..According to a recent report in The War Zone, a potential training regimen could take many months..“To learn the first stage of takeoff and landing and flying from point A to point B, it will take a few weeks, but to learn how to fight on it, to learn how to use missiles, we will take around six months,” Ignat said..The F-16 is relatively easy to operate safely, so it’s not too high a barrier to cross for the Ukrainian Air Force. An F-16 pilot told The War Zone: “In a matter of months it’s possible for a non-familiar aviator to be reasonably safe in a jet like the F-16..“The systems are easy to operate, the jet is easy to fly, and it’s very intuitive to learn. The Viper is an easy transition for an experienced fighter pilot from a pure flying perspective, no matter what type they are coming from.”.“You turn it on, you push the throttle up, you go and fly. The flight control system neutralizes any big mistakes, you really can’t over-stress the jet unless you’re really trying to..“You can’t take it out of controlled flight easily — there’s a lot of instances where it takes care of you with a layer of safety to where even a non-proficient operator can fly safely — some including enhanced ground proximity warning systems (EGPWS) — so that’s the first bridge they have to cross.”.The full F-16 Basic Course, also known as the B-Course, is typically a nine-month process for pilots fresh out of pilot training. Broadly it consists of academics, time in the simulator and live sorties..In addition to B-Courses, the Formal Training Units (FTUs) also run transition courses for pilots with experience in other jets — these are typically far shorter. In the case of the B-Course, an initial four weeks of academics teaches students about the systems of the F-16 and emergency procedures..This is followed by around eight simulator sessions covering basic instrument flying and hands-on experience of the various emergency procedures before they progress to the two-seat F-16D for four live flights before a first solo mission..The following sorties are designed to build experience ahead of a check ride with an instructor, during which the students are required to meet standards for instrument flying and handling emergencies..At this point, the new pilot is considered to be qualified to fly the F-16 in all weather conditions and can move on to night flying with night-vision goggles (NVGs)..Students step through an air-to-air phase including basic fighter maneuvers, air combat maneuvering, and tactical intercepts before they get into the air-to-ground phase with low-level flying, and surface attack tactics..There are around 60 sorties in the course, divided between the transition, air-to-air, and air-to-ground phases..In other words, it takes a lot of training to be fully proficient..However, a tailored transition course that incorporates a grounding in Western systems and standard operating procedures (SOPs), could be the type of syllabus that a future Ukrainian F-16 pilot coming from the Fulcrum or Flanker would need..“For a pilot with around 500 hours experience in a Western fighter, but that has never previously flown the F-16 — someone transitioning from the Hornet for example — without any breaks, working weekends, etc, they need 69 days to learn everything to safely employ the Viper in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles,” an experienced F-16 instructor told The War Zone..“That’s assuming they speak good English because that’s the language we teach in. Those 69 days include six flights learning to fly the jet and land it. About 15 flights of air-to-air, but if they’ve done a lot of this before you might get that down to 10.”.“The between six and nine air-to-surface missions, which would include a basic ability to employ laser-guided bombs [LGBs] and GPS-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions [JDAMs]. That would give them a basic, wingman-level understanding, and that’s assuming they are already familiar with the complex weapons such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM [Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile].”.The MiG-29 to a Block 50 or Mid-Life Upgrade Viper isn’t a big step in performance, but it’s a huge leap in technology — the weapons and avionics, he said..“Even after 69 days of intense training, that’s only a wingman qual [qualification], so who is going to lead the mission? Do you just send them off as a rogue single-ship to try and shoot down anything with more than one vertical tail? To be super effective, you at least need a four-ship, and to lead that needs at least a year of intensive training — then you can crush the opposition.”.The answer, he said, would have to be based on building a new syllabus based on Ukraine’s specific needs and the threat scenario, and to then take that into combat would need anywhere between six and 12 months of training..“It would still be risky, but that might outweigh the rewards.”.A risk the Ukrainians are no doubt willing to take.
