A war is being waged — but nobody is getting killed or injured and nobody really knows much about it, except for the insiders..It is without doubt that artificial intelligence, or AI, is the foundation of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) mission to become a world-class military, capable of rivalling its main adversary, the United States..It is the future of combat..Unveiled in 2017, Beijing’s New Generation AI Development Plan established China’s goal to become “the world leader” in AI by 2030 — and this obviously extends to military affairs..In a major development in this field, for the first time on record earlier this year, an artificial intelligence system reportedly beat one of the PLA’s top fighter pilots in a simulated dogfight, according to a report by research analyst Ryan Fedasiuk for Breaking Defense. .Chinese state media outlet, The Global Times, hailed it as a watershed moment in the country’s military modernization. .An aviation brigade affiliated with the PLA Central Theater Command Air Force held a training simulation in early summer in which Fang Guoyu, a group leader of the brigade, was shot down in a mock aerial battle against an AI aircraft in a simulator, the PLA Daily reported..“The AI has shown adept flight control skills and errorless tactical decisions, making it a valuable opponent to hone our capabilities,” Du Jianfeng, commander of the brigade, was quoted as saying. .But almost as significant was the fact that it came just months after the US military had achieved the same milestone..In a 5 to 0 sweep, an “AI pilot” developed by Heron Systems beat one of the Air Force’s top F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated aerial dogfight contest held by The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) ..The three-day trials showed that AI systems can maneuver an aircraft in a simple, one-on-one combat scenario and shoot its forward guns in a classic World War Two-style dogfight..For years, experts have written of China’s plan to wield AI for battlefield advantage but cited US advantages in hardware and workforce development as sources of US strength..As tensions mount between the US and China, and some experts warn of an impending crisis over Taiwan — China claims the democratic island nation as its own under the “One China” policy — US policymakers and defense planners are faced with the challenge of taking steps to defend the United States’ edge..This past week, H-6J strategic bombers armed with anti-ship missiles practiced “island bombing” as the PLA Navy (PLAN), projected its nascent power in the disputed South China Sea..More broadly, China appears on the edge of joining the tiny group of states that possess a nuclear triad..According to a Department of Defense report, Beijing has accelerated its nuclear expansion, which may enable the China to have up to “700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 and likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030.”.On top of that, China “is building hundreds of new ICBM silos, and is on the cusp of a large silo-based ICBM force expansion comparable to those undertaken by other major powers.”.China’s navy, the PLAN, is now larger than that of the United States Naval forces, by a large margin — and getting stronger and more powerful by the day..Meanwhile, China’s efforts to build an “intelligentized” force was recently detailed in a new report for Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), co-authored by Fedasiuk..Many of the AI projects identified in the study are explicitly focused on degrading and countering systems at the heart of the US military’s Joint Warfighting Concept, using techniques like adaptive radar jamming and vulnerability fuzzing, Fedasiuk writes. .Research papers from China’s defense universities even discuss using machine learning systems to counter specific US drone swarm projects like Locust and Gremlins..What’s more, the PLA is backing up its ambitious AI development goals with significant investment. .Despite the several-hundred-billion-dollar difference in the topline budgets of the US and Chinese militaries, countries are investing about the same amount in AI for military use — in the low billions of dollars each year, Fedasiuk says. .Between April and December 2020, more than one in 20 public contracts awarded by the PLA’s main service branches were related to AI or “intelligent” equipment. .In particular, the PLA is investing in AI capabilities meant to jam, blind, and hack the C4ISR systems (Command, Control, Communications, Computers Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) that bind US assets together. .PLA units and state-backed research institutions have also awarded contracts for “microwave reconnaissance jamming drones” and “electromagnetic weapon” payloads that can be attached to swarms of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and flown into enemy airspace, Fedasiuk says. .China is clearly not alone in the relentless push for AI weaponization — US technology is also racing ahead and it’s a lead it does not want to relinquish..This week, for example, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the service hopes to give the secretive new Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber a drone sidekick..“The B-21 is a very expensive aircraft. It has a certain payload and range. We’d like to amplify that capability it has to penetrate, which is valuable,” Kendall said during a Defense One event..The Air Force has floated the idea of a “Loyal Wingman”-style drone that would accompany fighter jets into combat and operate with some level of artificial intelligence. .The service is developing an autonomy module under the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Skyborg program and has already integrated and flown that system with the uncrewed Kratos UTAP-22 Mako and General Atomics’ MQ-20 Avenger..But despite the PLA’s significant progress in adopting AI-enabled systems, there are at least two clear vulnerabilities in its blueprint, Fedasiuk points out..First, while Chinese military leaders plan to exploit weaknesses in US sensor and communication networks, it is not clear how they plan to build resilient, cloud-based networks of their own. .While the US military is susceptible to information manipulation and data poisoning, the so-called “Achilles’ heel” of the US joint all-domain command and control strategy, in a potential conflict, the PLA itself would also likely struggle to ensure the integrity of data used to train its own AI systems — to say nothing of the inherent fragility of AI-based computer vision and object recognition systems. .Second, China’s “intelligentization” strategy is entirely predicated on access to AI chips designed by US companies and manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea. The supply of these high-end microelectronics, however, is far from guaranteed. .Both the US and its allies have already adopted several measures to starve Chinese military companies of the chips required to train advanced machine learning models..China’s technology giants have been pushing to develop their own chips, with the goal to become self-reliant in the critical technology..In reality, China is still a long way off even if it’s one step closer to self-sufficiency..US Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered some perspective on China’s technological advancements and subsequent rise to power in an interview this week with Breaking Defense..“If you look at again, 40 years ago, they had zero satellites. Look at what they’ve got today. They had no ICBMs. Look at what they’ve got today. They had no nuclear weapons. Look at what they’ve got today,” he said..“They had no fourth or fifth generation fighters or even more advanced fighters, back then. Look at what they’ve got today. They had no navy. Look what they have today. .“They had no sub force. Look at what they have today..“We’re witnessing, in my view, we’re witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power that the world has witnessed.”.Dave Makichuk is a Western Standard contributor. .,He has worked in the media for decades, including as an editor for the Calgary Herald. He is also the Calgary correspondent for ChinaFactor.news,.makichukd@gmail.com
