The Alberta United Conservative Party would receive a majority government if an election were held right now, according to a Monday poll by 338Canada. .The poll said the Alberta UCP would win 47 seats. The Alberta NDP would take 40 seats. .In the 2019 election, the UCP finished with 63 seats. The NDP won 24. .338Canada said the UCP and NDP would take the same size of the popular vote, garnering 42%. The pollster said the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (WIPA) would take 5% of the popular vote, and the Alberta Party would earn 4%. .The poll said the UCP would have a 56% chance of winning a majority government. It added the NDP have a 44% chance of forming a majority..This change is a major difference from October, when the NDP had a 100% chance of winning. In June, the UCP had an 81% chance of winning, while the NDP were at 19%. .While the NDP would pick up seats in Calgary, the poll said the UCP and it would have 13 seats each. The NDP would win all 20 seats in Edmonton. .The UCP would dominate in northern Alberta by claiming 12 seats, and the NDP would gain two. It would garner 13 seats in central Alberta, and the opposition would attain one. .The poll said the UCP would receive nine seats in southern Alberta, and the NDP would gain three. .This poll comes after Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced in May he would be stepping down after he took just 51.4% of the vote in his leadership review. .READ MORE: BREAKING: Kenney gets 51.4% in leadership vote, announces he will step down."Well, while 51% of the vote passes the constitutional threshold of the majority, it clearly is not adequate support to continue on,” said Kenney. .“And that is why tonight I've informed the president of the party of my intention to step down as leader of the United Conservative Party.".A Mainstreet Research poll commissioned by the Western Standard in 2021 showed the UCP would be wiped out if an election was held, with the NDP expected to return to power. .READ MORE: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows UCP collapse as NDP & Wildrose surge.The poll said 41% of Albertans would vote NDP. About 26% would cast a ballot for the UCP. .The poll showed WIPA would take 9% of the vote, which could lead to it appearing in the Alberta legislature. The Alberta Party was supported by 3%. .The 338Canada poll is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, election history, and demographic data. No margin of error was assigned to this poll.
