The Liberals would receive a smaller minority government if an election were held at this time, according to projections by 338Canada. .The Sunday projections said the Liberals would win 141 seats, a decrease from 160 in 2021. They said the Conservatives would form the official opposition with 139 seats, an increase from 119 in 2021. .The projections went on to say the Bloc Quebecois would lose seats, falling from 32 to 30. They added the NDP would go from 25 to 26 seats. .The Greens would stay the same at two seats. The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) would not pick up any seats. .These projections said the Conservatives would win the popular vote with 34%. They said the Liberals would come in second place at 31.2%. .The NDP would take 20.1% of the vote. This is followed by the Bloc Quebecois (6.9%) and the Greens and PPC (3.7%)..There is a 4% chance the Conservatives would form a majority government. A tie or Liberal majority government would happen 1% of the time. .Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would likely retain his seat in Papineau. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would keep his seat in Carleton. .Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet has a safe hold on Beloeil-Chambly. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has a likely hold on Burnaby South. .Green Interim Leader Amita Kuttner would likely lose their race in Burnaby North-Seymour to a Liberal candidate. PPC Leader Maxime Bernier would fail to clinch Beauce, losing to the Conservative candidate. .These projections come after a poll done by Abacus Data on Sept. 19 said the Conservatives would receive 35% of the vote if an election were held now, a one percentage point increase from the 2021 results. .The data is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, election history, and demographic data. No margin of error was assigned to this poll.
