The federal and Alberta governments moved swiftly last week to sign a sweeping memorandum of understanding (MOU) on energy and climate policy, drawing both applause and criticism from political leaders and Indigenous communities. The agreement greenlights a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, pauses clean electricity regulations in Alberta, and reiterates a shared commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.Despite the high-profile announcement, public reaction has been measured. An Abacus Data survey conducted less than 24 hours after the MOU was signed shows awareness is reasonably strong, with nearly six in ten Canadians having heard of the deal. Yet initial impressions suggest the agreement has not yet shifted voting intentions or overall government approval.Overall, 55% of Canadians expressed support for the new pipeline, with opposition at 18%. Support is strongest in Alberta, where 74% approve, and among Conservative voters nationwide, at 72%. .Quebec and NDP supporters show the lowest levels of support, with only 42% and 22% backing the project, respectively. In British Columbia, the proposed pipeline terminus province, 53% of respondents support the initiative, while 30% oppose it. Notably, support is fractured among BC NDP voters, with 37% in favour and 47% opposed.David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, believes the MOU’s various components — including carbon capture, indigenous co-ownership, and a commitment to net-zero — appear to soften potential opposition. Even more contentious elements, such as suspending clean electricity rules or modifying the federal oil tanker ban, generate ambivalence rather than outright resistance. .For Prime Minister Mark Carney, the deal represents a neutral political moment. Approval of his government remains steady at 47%, while his personal net favourability sits at +13 nationally. Regional support varies: Carney holds positive ratings in Quebec (+25), Ontario (+14), and even a slim margin in British Columbia (+4), but remains underwater in Alberta (-11). Among federal Liberal voters, nearly seven in ten view the deal’s energy and job-creation framing favourably..Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre sees little change in his standing nationally, remaining unpopular in Quebec and BC but strong in Alberta (+13). For Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the MOU provides a political win, consolidating support among her base without immediate backlash. British Columbia Premier David Eby faces a more complicated landscape: while a majority of BC residents support the pipeline for job creation and indigenous economic benefits, the potential loosening of the tanker ban dampens enthusiasm and generates opposition in the province..Former environment minister Steven Guilbeault’s resignation in protest of the deal has not shifted public opinion significantly. Only a quarter of Quebecers hold a positive view of him, and his national net impression is negative.The survey underscores that economic considerations continue to outweigh environmental concerns for many Canadians. Only one in three respondents believe climate policies should advance even at the expense of economic growth. Among Conservative voters, two-thirds reject that trade-off, while Liberal and NDP supporters show more openness to balancing climate action and economic priorities.Most Canadians remain optimistic that Canada can lead on energy while pursuing climate goals. Support for the idea that economic growth and environmental responsibility can coexist is highest in Alberta and among Liberal voters, and remains a majority view even in Quebec..Despite its high profile, the MOU has not yet shifted the political landscape. Federal party support remains steady, with Liberals and Conservatives tied at 41%, and regional battlegrounds showing little movement. Yet beneath the surface, the deal highlights emerging fault lines that could shape energy politics in the coming years. In British Columbia, opposition to changes in the tanker ban could challenge both federal Liberals and the provincial NDP. In Quebec, Carney’s strong personal brand may shield the Liberals, but the Bloc could still press for more ambitious climate action. Among Conservatives, the MOU may slightly erode their exclusive claim to the pro-pipeline mantle.For now, Canadians appear more concerned with economic stability, cost of living, and healthcare than climate policy. But as implementation details emerge and debates over tanker regulations intensify, the MOU’s political consequences may yet become more pronounced.The survey of 1,802 Canadians was conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 1, 2025, using a weighted sample to match Canada’s population. The margin of error is ±2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
