Alberta's only representative in Prime Minister Mark Carney's federal cabinet is warning that uncertainty surrounding the province's independence referendum is already affecting business decisions and says a decisive vote to remain in Canada is needed.Blacklock's Reporter says Emergency Management Minister Eleanor Olszewski told senators she wants a strong rejection of Alberta independence when voters head to the polls October 19.“There are businesses that are making decisions not to hire or invest,” Olszewski said. “We really need a strong outcome. We need a decisive ‘remain’ vote on October 19.”Olszewski made the remarks during Senate Question Period while facing questions about the potential economic consequences of the referendum and whether Ottawa has prepared contingency plans should Albertans vote to pursue independence.The referendum asks voters whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or begin the constitutional process toward a second, binding vote on leaving Confederation.Olszewski did not specify what margin of victory would constitute a decisive result. She also declined to outline any federal contingency measures in the event voters support beginning the independence process.Sen. Kristopher Wells (Alta.) raised concerns about the potential impact of the referendum on Alberta businesses, employment and the broader Prairie economy.“On October 19 Albertans will vote on 10 referendum questions,” Wells told the Senate. “One of these questions asks whether the Province of Alberta should begin the constitutional process toward a binding vote on separation.”Wells asked whether the federal government had assessed the economic consequences of the vote.“Can you tell us what kind of assessment the Government of Canada has made of this referendum’s potential economic impact on Alberta and the wider Prairie region?” he asked.“What is the Government of Canada doing to assure investors and employers?”.Olszewski maintained that uncertainty surrounding Alberta's constitutional future was already influencing economic activity.“We know there have already been economic impacts with just the discussion about separatism,” she replied.The minister pointed to commentary from private-sector business organizations but did not provide specific figures detailing the economic effects.Wells warned that the referendum could trigger an extended period of constitutional uncertainty, particularly if voters endorse beginning the process toward independence.“A concern many of us share is that this referendum and the uncertainty it has brought to our economy will open a prolonged period of constitutional instability,” Wells said.He pressed Olszewski on whether Ottawa had developed plans to protect Alberta workers and businesses if the referendum produced a prolonged constitutional dispute.“Can you tell us if the Government of Canada has done any contingency planning to protect Alberta’s economy and ensure workers are protected should there be a prolonged period of economic and constitutional instability?” Wells asked.Olszewski did not identify any specific contingency measures.“At this point in time with respect to what we’re doing in the province of Alberta, it’s to show that we’re in partnership with Alberta,” she replied.The October 19 vote comes more than three decades after Quebec's 1995 sovereignty referendum, when voters narrowly rejected independence.In that referendum, 50.6% voted against Quebec becoming sovereign after offering Canada a new economic and political partnership.The close result prompted Parliament to establish federal rules governing future provincial independence referendums.In 2000, Parliament passed the Clarity Act, requiring the House of Commons to determine whether a referendum question clearly expresses voters' intentions regarding independence..The legislation requires “a clear expression of the will of the population of a province on whether the province should cease to be part of Canada and become an independent state.”Unlike Quebec's 1995 referendum, Alberta's October 19 question would not itself authorize independence. A vote in favour would direct the provincial government to begin the legal process required to hold a subsequent binding referendum.Olszewski's testimony leaves unanswered what measures Ottawa would take if Albertans vote to pursue that process, with the minister emphasizing the federal government's partnership with Alberta rather than outlining a response to a possible independence vote.
