Ottawa's projected $60-billion to $90-billion price tag for the Alto high-speed rail project is based on a per-kilometre construction cost far below the average of four international projects studied by the Crown corporation, according to documents tabled in Parliament.Cabinet disclosed details behind the estimate in an Inquiry Of Ministry tabled in the House of Commons after Bloc Québécois MP Jean-Denis Garon asked what assumptions were used to calculate the cost of the proposed Québec City-Toronto railway.“Current estimates for the Alto project, $60 billion to $90 billion, reflect capital costs,” cabinet wrote.Blacklock's Reporter said the range was first publicly cited in a June 16, 2025 Transport Department briefing note.Alto Corporation examined high-speed rail construction costs in Spain, California, France and the United Kingdom. Those projects averaged about $237 million per kilometre.The Alto estimate, however, assumes a substantially lower construction cost.“Using the mid-point estimate of $75 billion for an approximately 900-kilometre network, Alto’s cost equates to about $83 million per kilometre,” said the Inquiry.The documents did not provide a detailed explanation for selecting the $83-million figure.International comparisons cited in the records ranged widely. High-speed rail construction was estimated at $28 million per kilometre in Spain, $121 million in California, $173 million in France and $626 million in the United Kingdom.“A comprehensive business plan will be published once the high speed rail project has identified an alignment and begun contacting prospective suppliers,” said the Inquiry.An initial report is expected in 2027.The proposed electric railway would operate at speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour and connect Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal, Trois-Rivières and Québec City.Alto CEO Martin Imbleau defended the preliminary estimate during testimony before the Senate national finance committee on Feb. 24.“It’s an internal working assumption based on what we’ve got from the bidders, but also our international estimate,” Imbleau said. “You would appreciate it’s a fairly wide range because we need more detailed engineering.”.Sen. Clément Gignac asked Imbleau how confident he was in the projected cost range.“It’s very difficult,” Imbleau replied.“If you have got one hand in the fridge and the other in the oven, you don’t get zero degrees in the middle,” he said. “Once I have a route planned and the engineering information, then I can come up with a cost estimate.”Transport Canada acknowledged the risks associated with the project in a March 9 Follow-Up Response to the Senate committee.“Canada acknowledges the initiative is a large, complex mega project and challenges are expected consistent with global evidence on mega project risk,” the department wrote. “To address this, Canada has put in place structured federal oversight.”Asked how it would prevent cost overruns and delays, Transport Canada said it would oversee risks throughout the project.“Transport Canada will ensure the high speed rail initiative stays within budget, avoids major delays and manages performance risks across all phases,” it said.
