The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is "stuck between a rock and a hard place" with its Zero COVID strategy, according to Chinese experts..While increasing pressure from thousands of protestors and rising government deficits are incentivizing the country to ease its public health restrictions, there are concerns reopening too quickly could result in an "explosion" of infections and deaths.."[The CCP] realize it's unsustainable, but at the same time, they are really empowered to keep the restrictions. Because they know if they diminish their confinement measures too much or too fast, that there might be an explosion of cases of COVID," said University of Ottawa professor Andre Laliberte..China has some of the world's strictest public health measures for COVID-19. It attempted to eradicate the virus through a 'Zero COVID' strategy of strict lockdowns, mass testing, and isolating the infected by removing them from their homes..READ MORE: WATCH: China revolts against government's Zero COVID policies.Thousands of Chinese recently began protesting against their government's Zero COVID policies. Thousands of people gathered in the cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Lanzhou to call for an easing of restrictions and the overthrow of the CCP..Laliberte, the holder of the Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, said while the current demonstrations are the largest since Tiananmen Square, there are some key differences.."In 1989, everyone was converging in Beijing. This time, it's a bit different because there are far less people, but it's in many different cities," he said. "It's difficult to assess the scale, because due to censorship, we mostly just have to rely on Chinese media.".Laliberte said the CCP likely realizes that it needs to "back off a bit" and ease its COVID-19 policies to placate the protestors. But several health experts have claimed that strategy could be dangerous since few people have had exposure to the virus due to the restrictions..The experts also claim since China has low vaccination rates, this could lead to a tsunami of deaths if the country were to reopen completely.."The healthcare system is not robust enough. There are estimates that half a million people could die," Laliberte said. "So far, the current variant is not that deadly. But still, for people who are elderly, people who have health conditions, that would be very difficult."."Overall, the Chinese government is between a rock and a hard place. That is the best way to put it.".Yongjing Zhang, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said China's COVID policies cost the country economically. Its GDP growth fell from 10% in recent years to just 2% in the first half of 2022, and thousands of small businesses have been forced to close permanently..But he said at the same time, the lower levels of government in China have financial incentives to carry on with strict Zero COVID measures. Zhang said COVID testing and isolation camps are a "big business" in China, encouraging cities and provinces to continue with the restrictions.."The local levels of government will say, 'hey, we want to overdo this, not underdo this. If I go more restrictive, I will ask for more funding from the upper levels of government, and I'll get more money.' It's a very tricky issue," he said..But Zhang said after years of maintaining strict testing and quarantine restrictions, local Chinese governments now have "no money left." .Data from China's Ministry of Finance released Friday showed local governments have a budget deficit of more than $1.65 trillion due to spending on mass testing, lockdowns and quarantine centres..The data showed as a result, local governments have been forced to delay or suspend payments to COVID testing providers. Zhang suggested this is why the city of Guangzhou decided to ease their COVID restrictions in several districts on Wednesday.."They have no choice but to lift the quarantines and testing. But if there are no tests being done, there are no cases," he said..Emile Dirks, an independent researcher based at the University of Toronto, said the recent death of former Secretary General Jiang Zemin is further complicating the Chinese government's response to the recent protests.."The reason why this is a complicating factor is that in the past, when there has been both dissatisfaction with the central leadership and a former senior leader has passed away, public displays of mourning are often used as opportunities to demonstrate against the state," he said..The deaths of Premier Zhou Enlai in 1976 and Hu Yaobang in 1989 both led to demonstrations at Tiananmen Square, according to Dirks. He said the memory of these protests is likely "weighing heavily" in the minds of the CCP's central leadership.."What I think they're really worried about is that people will take the opportunity of mourning Zemin to also publicly demonstrate against the state," he said. "These deaths allow protestors to say, 'we're coming up to mourn the death of a political leader,' and that provides a kind of political cover to criticize the current leadership or policies.".However, Dirks said the CCP is likely in a position where it would be difficult to lift COVID restrictions overnight, as it would result in an uptick of cases and deaths in vulnerable people.."I think the Chinese government is struggling with not having much of a capacity to deal with a potential increase in cases. They are in a tough spot," Dirks said.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is "stuck between a rock and a hard place" with its Zero COVID strategy, according to Chinese experts..While increasing pressure from thousands of protestors and rising government deficits are incentivizing the country to ease its public health restrictions, there are concerns reopening too quickly could result in an "explosion" of infections and deaths.."[The CCP] realize it's unsustainable, but at the same time, they are really empowered to keep the restrictions. Because they know if they diminish their confinement measures too much or too fast, that there might be an explosion of cases of COVID," said University of Ottawa professor Andre Laliberte..China has some of the world's strictest public health measures for COVID-19. It attempted to eradicate the virus through a 'Zero COVID' strategy of strict lockdowns, mass testing, and isolating the infected by removing them from their homes..READ MORE: WATCH: China revolts against government's Zero COVID policies.Thousands of Chinese recently began protesting against their government's Zero COVID policies. Thousands of people gathered in the cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Lanzhou to call for an easing of restrictions and the overthrow of the CCP..Laliberte, the holder of the Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, said while the current demonstrations are the largest since Tiananmen Square, there are some key differences.."In 1989, everyone was converging in Beijing. This time, it's a bit different because there are far less people, but it's in many different cities," he said. "It's difficult to assess the scale, because due to censorship, we mostly just have to rely on Chinese media.".Laliberte said the CCP likely realizes that it needs to "back off a bit" and ease its COVID-19 policies to placate the protestors. But several health experts have claimed that strategy could be dangerous since few people have had exposure to the virus due to the restrictions..The experts also claim since China has low vaccination rates, this could lead to a tsunami of deaths if the country were to reopen completely.."The healthcare system is not robust enough. There are estimates that half a million people could die," Laliberte said. "So far, the current variant is not that deadly. But still, for people who are elderly, people who have health conditions, that would be very difficult."."Overall, the Chinese government is between a rock and a hard place. That is the best way to put it.".Yongjing Zhang, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said China's COVID policies cost the country economically. Its GDP growth fell from 10% in recent years to just 2% in the first half of 2022, and thousands of small businesses have been forced to close permanently..But he said at the same time, the lower levels of government in China have financial incentives to carry on with strict Zero COVID measures. Zhang said COVID testing and isolation camps are a "big business" in China, encouraging cities and provinces to continue with the restrictions.."The local levels of government will say, 'hey, we want to overdo this, not underdo this. If I go more restrictive, I will ask for more funding from the upper levels of government, and I'll get more money.' It's a very tricky issue," he said..But Zhang said after years of maintaining strict testing and quarantine restrictions, local Chinese governments now have "no money left." .Data from China's Ministry of Finance released Friday showed local governments have a budget deficit of more than $1.65 trillion due to spending on mass testing, lockdowns and quarantine centres..The data showed as a result, local governments have been forced to delay or suspend payments to COVID testing providers. Zhang suggested this is why the city of Guangzhou decided to ease their COVID restrictions in several districts on Wednesday.."They have no choice but to lift the quarantines and testing. But if there are no tests being done, there are no cases," he said..Emile Dirks, an independent researcher based at the University of Toronto, said the recent death of former Secretary General Jiang Zemin is further complicating the Chinese government's response to the recent protests.."The reason why this is a complicating factor is that in the past, when there has been both dissatisfaction with the central leadership and a former senior leader has passed away, public displays of mourning are often used as opportunities to demonstrate against the state," he said..The deaths of Premier Zhou Enlai in 1976 and Hu Yaobang in 1989 both led to demonstrations at Tiananmen Square, according to Dirks. He said the memory of these protests is likely "weighing heavily" in the minds of the CCP's central leadership.."What I think they're really worried about is that people will take the opportunity of mourning Zemin to also publicly demonstrate against the state," he said. "These deaths allow protestors to say, 'we're coming up to mourn the death of a political leader,' and that provides a kind of political cover to criticize the current leadership or policies.".However, Dirks said the CCP is likely in a position where it would be difficult to lift COVID restrictions overnight, as it would result in an uptick of cases and deaths in vulnerable people.."I think the Chinese government is struggling with not having much of a capacity to deal with a potential increase in cases. They are in a tough spot," Dirks said.
