CALGARY — With Canada looking to capitalize on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by ramping up production and shipments to Asian markets in light of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, a debate is growing over whether importing nations can trust global supply chains to keep their lights on.At an event hosted by the Modern Miracle Network on Thursday, Roger A. Pielke Jr., an American political scientist and a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argued that the central challenge facing LNG exports in 2026 is not production capacity, but credibility.“The biggest problem with increasing exports of LNG in 2026 and going forward is exporting trust, not natural gas,” Pielke said, pointing to rising geopolitical uncertainty and recent supply chain disruptions.He believes that concern is increasingly shaping decisions in Asia — one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing energy markets.Pielke indicated that some Asian countries were rethinking their coal strategies by importing Australian coal or sourcing more of the commodity domestically due to possible energy disruptions and doubts about the reliability of LNG shipments.“There's no greater threat to a society or a government than the lights going out,” he said, emphasizing that reliability is becoming the dominant factor in energy planning worldwide..Canada Energy Regulator warns of rising electricity demand, LNG dependence.While domestic disputes over pipelines and supply and export infrastructure continue in Canada, international customers are weighing not just cost and emissions, but whether exporting nations can be counted on over the long term as global demand for energy continues to surge.Forecasts from major oil companies and international organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) project significant growth in LNG exports in the coming decades, a sentiment recently shared by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), which believes Canadian natural gas production will steadily increase, reaching between 21 and 32 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) over the next 25 years.Much of the demand is expected to come from developing countries, where billions of people still consume far less energy than those in wealthier countries.“There's five billion people who don't live like us, and that energy is gonna have to come from somewhere,” Pielke said.“I'm very bullish on natural gas.”He also identified nuclear power as a potentially more stable and secure option for countries seeking to reduce dependence on volatile global energy markets, but added that geopolitics will remain the deciding factor in how global markets evolve going forward, and will particularly hinge on the actions of the US.“The biggest casualty of the Trump administration may be a loss of trust in the United States, for a generation,” Pielke stated.“[The] US has massive resources and ability to export LNG, but if I'm Japan, am I really gonna be thinking that the US is a trusted partner?”
