A Bank of Canada survey finds up to 35% of market analysts see a recession hitting within six months, despite Governor Tiff Macklem’s repeated assurances the economy will avoid contraction in 2025.The Market Participants Survey, conducted in June and July, asked respondents from banks, dealers, pension funds, insurers, and asset management firms to estimate the likelihood of real GDP growth falling below zero by the end of 2025. Per Blacklock's Reporter, just over 21% considered it probable, while most predicted growth of 1% or less.When asked about a recession in the near term, more than a third put the odds at probable, citing increased trade tensions and weaker consumer spending as the top risks.Macklem, speaking at the July 30 rate announcement, maintained the economy would see modest growth in the third and fourth quarters. “We’re not expecting a recession,” he reiterated, noting that although unemployment has risen to 6.8% and youth joblessness has climbed, widespread layoffs have not materialized.The central bank’s benchmark interest rate currently sits at 2.75%, down from 3.75% last December, with the next decision due September 17. Macklem acknowledged that high tariffs and uncertain trade negotiations are weighing on the economy but argued that uncertainty alone does not justify a rate cut.
