CALGARY — Forecasts of a global oil glut for 2026 are grossly exaggerated, according to the president of the world’s largest oil producer.Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Amin Nasser, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, said that demand growth remains strong and global oil inventories are being drawn down, contradicting forecasts that supply will soon overwhelm consumption.Oil prices traded above US$60 per barrel for much of 2025, but some analysts have projected a decline in 2026, citing expected production growth from the United States, OPEC+, and other producers.Nasser pushed back against that view, arguing that physical market data does not support the idea of a looming surplus.“We have seen record demand last year — not only in oil, but in gas and even coal — and we’re seeing record demand this year as well,” Nasser told CNBC.“What people talk about, that there is a glut of additional barrels in the market, is not really based on fundamentals.”He stated that onshore oil inventories are at the lower end of their five-year average, indicating tight supply conditions.While Nasser said some excess barrels are held in offshore storage, those volumes are largely tied to sanctioned countries — primarily Russia, Iran, and Venezuela — and do not reflect broader market oversupply.“If there were a supply glut, you would see it in physical barrels and in onshore storage,” Nasser said.“What you see offshore is mostly sanctioned barrels, which represent almost 70% of those volumes.”.Enserva's oil and gas forecast shows lower investment, rising LNG demand for 2025-26.Nasser also dismissed suggestions that oil demand may be approaching a peak, noting that consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise despite years of forecasts predicting declines.“There is no indication that we have reached peak demand — not for oil and not even for coal,” he said.“The energy mix will continue to require all sources: renewables, oil, gas, and others, as long as they are affordable, secure, and sustainable.”Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth of 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment.Nasser said Aramco’s internal outlook sees global oil demand rising to about 107 million bpd in 2026, up from roughly 106 million bpd last year.His comments contrast with more cautious outlooks from some Canadian analysts.Earlier this month, a forecast from consulting firm Deloitte predicted global oil markets would remain oversupplied, putting downward pressure on prices despite continued demand growth.Deloitte expected US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to average US$58 per barrel over the next year, roughly in line with current trading levels and about 20% lower than a year ago.By comparison, the Alberta government is budgeting for oil prices of US$68 per barrel. Canada’s heavy crude benchmark, Western Canadian Select, is projected to average in the low C$60s.“The oversupply is real,” Andrew Botterill, a partner at Deloitte Canada and lead author of the report, said.“Even as demand and economies are moving forward, they’re not moving at the robust rates we might hope. We’re currently looking at an oversupply of about three million barrels a day, putting downward pressure on prices — especially in the first half of the year.”
