CALGARY — US President Donald Trump has said his government is working on a “massive deal” to purchase potash from Belarus amid ongoing trade uncertainty with Canada.“The pricing would be substantially less than we are currently paying Canada, which is very good news for our farmers and ranchers,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday..According to government data, Canada is the leading exporter of potash, shipping approximately 22.9 million tonnes in 2024 — accounting for roughly 39% of global exports.The United States is the largest destination for Canada’s potash exports, receiving about 85% of its imported potash from north of the 49th parallel.Currently, all ten of Canada’s active potash mines are in Saskatchewan. In 2024, those mines produced an estimated 25 million tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP), an increase of roughly 2.1 million tonnes from the previous year.Belarus is also one of the world’s largest potash producers, behind Canada and Russia, accounting for almost 16% of all potash produced globally.Following Trump’s announcement, shares of major potash producers dipped. While supporters of the president’s proposal could see it as leverage against Canada during the ongoing trade tensions, dissenters are pointing to Belarus’s close ties with Russia as a downside.Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has permitted Russian leader Vladimir Putin to station troops in Belarus, and the country has also become increasingly dependent on Russian transportation infrastructure.In 2021, Belarus began redirecting petroleum-product exports through Russian ports after withdrawing shipments from more profitable Baltic ports, particularly Lithuania’s Klaipeda port.Earlier this year, the Trump administration lifted some restrictions on Belarusian fertilizer companies as part of negotiations with Lukashenko, resulting in Belarus releasing political prisoners..However, Lukashenko has appeared to put a dent in Trump's plans, saying that Belarus cannot supply potash to the US under the proposed "deal" according to EurAsia Daily."Even if we wanted to supply somewhere else, Western markets, we just don't have those volumes, everything has been contracted," he said, adding that 85% of all his country's exports and imports are in the "eastern direction." "First of all, China and other Asian countries. Of course, and the Russian Federation," Lukashenko said.Canada’s premiers have previously disagreed over whether the country should use potash and other energy exports as leverage in the ongoing trade dispute with the US.While Ontario Premier Doug Ford has pushed for restricting American access to Canadian electricity, oil, and critical minerals, the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan have opposed restricting energy exports, saying that retaliation could damage Canada’s energy sector and undermine the country’s global reputation as a reliable supplier of oil, gas, and other products.“The United States of America, most assuredly, would switch to buying potash from other nations around the world. We would lose a long-term customer to some degree," Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has previously said..In a Monday afternoon social media post on X, Moe said that, "buying blood potash from Belarus is supporting Russian aggression," adding that, "it’s wrong and it doesn’t make sense."He also pointed out that Belarus is landlocked and all potential potash shipments would first have to go through Russia before being shipped on to American ports."Does anyone believe Belarusian blood potash shipped through Russia is going to be more affordable, more sustainable or more ethical than potash shipped from Saskatchewan - right here in North America?" Moe asked.."The world’s largest economy has options," Dr. Sylvain Charlebois — also known as The Food Professor — commented on social media platform X."President Trump’s message below about potash makes that abundantly clear. Our arrogance as a country remains our greatest weakness.".However, James Moore, Canada’s industry minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper, offered an alternative, saying that Canada “has room to shift” if the US proposal with Belarus goes ahead.He pointed to China as the world’s largest consumer of potash and, noting that demand is growing, hinted that Canada could position itself as a reliable supplier of more potash to Asian markets.“Imports rose 29.29% year-on-year in Q1 2026. 53% of Canadian potash goes to the US; only 6% goes to China," Moore said.
