Canada’s housing supply will fall dramatically short of federal targets for the rest of the decade, according to new projections from the Parliamentary Budget Office. Blacklock's Reporter says the report predicts new home construction will remain well below levels required to restore affordability, peaking at fewer than 262,000 starts in 2030 — nearly half the 500,000 annual starts cabinet has identified as necessary.The forecast comes despite repeated promises from federal ministers to ignite a construction surge. “This new government is focused on moving forward and building,” Housing Minister Gregor Robertson told MPs this week. “We are focused on building big,” he said, adding, “We have to stay focused.”.The all-time high for housing starts remains the 273,200 homes built in 1976. Analysts with the Budget Office did not comment further, but the data was included in a report titled Introducing GST Rebates For First-Time Homebuyers.Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has offered a similarly grim outlook. In a February 27 commentary, CMHC warned that, based on current trends, it could take up to 30 years to bring housing prices down to affordable levels. “This is much too long for Canadians looking for a more affordable housing option now,” said the agency’s report Affordability In Canada..According to CMHC chief economist Mathieu Laberge, the process of bringing new housing to market is slow at every step. Initial planning and approvals alone can take up to five years. “Next comes the actual construction,” Laberge wrote, which can take another two years for multi-unit developments. The full timeline from concept to completion—and eventual influence on market prices—can stretch to as long as three decades.“It takes up to 20 years to feel the full effect of additional market housing supply on lower housing prices,” the report noted. “This is far too long for Canadians looking for an attainable housing unit option. It’s much too long to see the end of our current housing crisis.”
