CALGARY — Uncertainty over Alberta’s future in Canada could stall business spending and weaken Calgary’s economy, Calgary Economic Development warns, even as the province heads toward 2027 with growth forecasts outpacing the national average.The organization says prolonged uncertainty surrounding Alberta separatism could delay major projects, slow business expansion and undermine efforts to attract workers ahead of the October 19 referendum.The warning comes as Calgary city council affirmed the city’s place “as a vital part of Alberta and Canada” through an urgent motion brought forward by Mayor Jeromy Farkas.Farkas argued independence would increase economic risk and drive capital away.“Calgary has worked hard to build an economy that is more diversified, resilient and globally competitive, but the threat of separatism undermines that momentum,” said Farkas.He said Calgary’s future opportunities depend on maintaining confidence among businesses and remaining open to newcomers and new ideas.Despite those concerns, Alberta has a substantial roster of potential projects. The province had 27 opportunities worth nearly $100 billion listed in the federal deal book at the Canada Investment Summit — more projects than any other province.Many fall within sectors central to Calgary’s economy, including energy, technology, transportation and logistics, defence and advanced manufacturing. Those opportunities represent potential spending rather than guaranteed commitments..WATCH: Farkas warns Alberta independence could cost Calgary 69,000 jobs, Keith Wilson challenges economic case.“Calgary’s place at the heart of Alberta and Canada is central to our economic strength,” said Brad Parry, president and CEO of Calgary Economic Development and CEO of the Opportunity Calgary Investment Fund.Parry said companies and workers have choices about where to locate, warning prolonged uncertainty could make it harder for Calgary to attract and retain the people its economy needs.ATB Financial forecasts Alberta’s real GDP will grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. That compares with projected national growth of 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.However, affordability pressures and youth underemployment remain challenges despite Alberta’s stronger performance.“Alberta continues to weather global turbulence better than most, supported by strong energy fundamentals, expanding market access and a lighter overall tariff burden than the national average,” said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial’s vice-president and chief economist.“The world wants safe, reliable resources, and if we can navigate current uncertainties to advance major infrastructure — such as the Pacific Link pipeline — there is substantial upside for both Calgary and Alberta.”Expanding energy production, higher crude prices and improved access to markets for oil and liquefied natural gas are supporting provincial growth.ATB says energy exemptions and lower exposure to targeted products such as steel, aluminum and automobiles leave Alberta facing a lighter overall tariff burden than Canada as a whole. Nevertheless, businesses subject to sector-specific tariffs of up to 50% face significant consequences.Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, now a senior adviser at Bennett Jones LLP and BMO, said major projects could shift the province’s focus toward managing growth.“There are plenty of reasons for optimism for the Calgary and Alberta economies. With multiple major projects in the works, we may be soon facing the challenges of managing growth, which will require thoughtful planning,” said Kenney.“One way we can achieve that enormous potential is by demonstrating political stability and an openness to Canada and the world.”
