Ottawa fell billions short of its long-promised NATO defence spending benchmark last year, despite repeated assurances from Prime Minister Mark Carney and Defence Minister David McGuinty that Canada would finally meet the 2% of GDP target.Blacklock's Reporter says new figures from Statistics Canada confirm Canada’s 2025 Gross Domestic Product reached $2.5 trillion, setting the NATO 2% benchmark at $50 billion in military spending. Actual defence spending totalled $45.4 billion, leaving Ottawa roughly $4.6 billion short of the commitment it had vowed to meet by December 31.The shortfall marks another missed deadline for a target Canada has not achieved since the Korean War era. The Department of National Defence has not publicly commented on the gap.In last year’s Main Estimates, the department pledged it was “making reliable and valuable contributions to our allies and partners,” while presenting a vision of a military prepared to assert sovereignty, particularly in the Arctic and Northern regions, and respond to natural disasters at home.On June 9, Carney declared, “Canada will achieve NATO’s 2% of GDP target this year, half a decade ahead of schedule.” He warned taxpayers that meeting the goal would require “difficult choices,” adding, “Aspiration without effort is just empty rhetoric.”“If we want a better world we will have to make difficult choices and work harder than we’ve had to in decades,” Carney said at the time. .“Government must start by fulfilling its most fundamental role which is to defend Canadians.”“We are protecting Canadians against new threats,” he added. “I wished we didn’t have to but we do have to. It is our core responsibility.”The December deadline passed without announcement or explanation. On February 17, Carney shifted the timeline, stating Canada was now on track to meet the 2% NATO target by this spring — a decade ahead of the previous schedule.This year’s Main Estimates project defence spending of $50.7 billion. That figure would technically meet the 2% threshold only if economic growth slows or Canada enters recession, shrinking the overall GDP denominator.The Parliamentary Budget Office has warned the government may ultimately rely on what amounts to a statistical technicality.“In terms of the NATO 2% target, it’s going to be close,” interim budget officer Jason Jacques testified before the Senate national finance committee on November 25. “It’s going to be a rounding difference, potentially,” he said.
