Canada is entering a period of widespread uncertainty. The latest Abacus Data Precarity Index shows that nearly 47% of Canadians now report high or extreme precarity, up sharply from March 2025. Housing pressures, rising costs, job insecurity, and international tensions are leaving more Canadians vulnerable, while the middle ground of stability is shrinking.The results paint a sobering picture: nearly half of Canadians now live with high or extreme vulnerability, the middle ground is disappearing, and financial, environmental, and geopolitical pressures are shaping everyday life. Confidence in the country’s institutions is waning, and Canadians are bracing for persistent challenges in the years ahead.Earlier this year, the federal election reflected these anxieties. Canadians seeking reassurance gravitated toward Liberal leader Carney, while those frustrated with years of economic strain turned to Conservative Pierre Poilievre.Carney’s message ultimately won, but sustaining calm has proven difficult. U.S. tariff threats remain unresolved, housing costs continue to rise, and everyday Canadians are questioning whether jobs, healthcare, and national security can withstand ongoing pressures..The Abacus index shows a hollowing out of the middle. Canadians reporting low precarity dropped from 9% to 5%, and moderate precarity fell from 38% to 35%.High precarity rose from 30% to 34%, and extreme precarity surged from 9% to 13%. Mild precarity remained steady at 13%, masking the broader polarization toward vulnerability.Precarity is spreading beyond the traditionally high-risk groups. Adults aged 45 to 59 saw a 10-point increase in high or extreme precarity, while those 60+ rose 11 points.Women remain more precarious than men, but both genders saw an 8-point increase. Middle-income households earning $50,000–$100,000 experienced a 13-point jump, and households over $100,000 rose 9 points, showing that even previously secure Canadians are feeling exposed..Political alignment mirrors vulnerability. Among those in extreme precarity, 51% say they would vote Liberal, compared with 33% in low-precarity groups. Conservatives dominate among low-precarity Canadians with 61% support.Looking ahead, Canadians see few reasons for optimism. 59% expect the cost of living to worsen, and half foresee further declines in housing affordability. Nearly half anticipate worsening climate risks, and 46% expect job security to erode. About 45% foresee deteriorating Canada–U.S. relations, compared with just 16% who expect improvement..Canadians also predict major disruptions over the next five years. 39% believe Canada’s population will surpass 50 million, 35% expect a recession worse than 2008–09, and 34% anticipate widespread AI-driven job losses. Among Canadians in extreme precarity, 54% foresee a severe recession, 59% expect major AI-driven job losses, 39% worry the U.S. may fail as a democracy, and 36% anticipate Quebec holding an independence referendum.The survey, conducted Jul. 31 to Aug. 7, 2025, included 1,686 Canadian adults, with a margin of error of ±2.39%, and was weighted to reflect the population by age, gender, education, and region.
