CALGARY — Canada’s energy contractors expect fewer working rigs and a roughly 10% drop in wells drilled across Western Canada next year, although stronger export demand and new pipelines could improve the outlook.The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) projects 5,900 wells will be drilled in Western Canada in 2027, down from an estimated 6,559 in 2026, according to its latest State of the Industry Report.The association released the report at its annual luncheon, co-hosted with the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) and featuring a keynote address by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Friday. Canada is forecast to average 205 active drilling rigs in 2027, compared with 218 this year. Working service rigs are expected to decline to 449 from 464.The report’s expanded three-year forecast, developed with Studio.Energy, projects the industry will support 82,065 direct and indirect jobs in 2027, down from 86,326 in 2026.Employment is forecast to ease further to 79,850 in 2028 and 79,504 in 2029..Despite the anticipated declines, CAOEC said activity is expected to remain healthy compared with the past decade, with opportunities for growth if market conditions and government policies support additional spending.“Our forecast points to steady activity in the years ahead, with significant upside potential,” said CAOEC president and CEO Mark Scholz.The association identified growing global energy demand, strong commodity prices, expanding liquefied natural gas exports and new pipeline infrastructure as factors that could put activity above its baseline forecast.It also welcomed the federal Productivity Mega Deduction and proposed project-approval measures under Bill C-39, describing them as encouraging steps toward improving conditions for industry spending.“As global demand for secure and reliable energy continues to grow, Canada’s natural resources will have a vital role to play,” said Scholz.“More production means more activity, more activity means more rigs, and more rigs mean more jobs and long-term opportunities for Canadian workers in rural, remote, and indigenous communities.”Under the baseline forecast, active drilling rigs would average 200 in 2028 before edging up to 202 in 2029. Service rig activity would continue declining, reaching 435 working rigs in 2028 and 423 in 2029.Western Canadian well totals are projected to fall to 5,780 in 2028 before recovering slightly to 5,833 in 2029.
