Despite cordial exchanges in Washington this week, most Canadians remain unconvinced that progress is coming in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute, according to new data from the Angus Reid Institute.Two-thirds (67%) of Canadians say the friendly tone between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney is merely optics and will not lead to a meaningful deal. Just 20% say the warmer relations give them hope for a mutually beneficial agreement, which is already months past a Trump-imposed August deadline.Confidence in a good trade outcome has been falling steadily. In July, 46% of Canadians said they were confident a deal would benefit the country, with 45% expressing doubt. That dropped to 43% in August and September, and now only 35% are confident, while 58% are not..Trump’s unpredictability is driving the decline. A majority of Canadians (58%) blame the U.S. president for their disillusionment. Among 2025 Liberal voters, 95% cite Trump as the source of concern, while 37% of Conservative voters share that view.The data also underscore the deep unpopularity of the Trump administration in Canada: 71% view it negatively, with approval highest in Saskatchewan at 29% and lowest in Atlantic Canada at 9%. Mark Carney, meanwhile, maintains steady approval at 50%, with Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc urging hope that both sides will “quickly” reach deals on key exports such as steel and aluminum.
