CALGARY — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s standoff with US President Donald Trump has fuelled speculation he could collect two international honours coveted by the American leader — despite no public evidence he is under consideration for the Nobel Peace Prize.The Associated Press reported Carney briefly became the favourite on US prediction market Kalshi on Monday, with traders putting his chances of winning the 2026 peace prize at 14%. His odds subsequently slipped, underscoring the speculative nature of the betting.The Nobel Committee’s shortlist remains secret. The winner will be announced October 9 in Oslo, Norway.Carney has gained international attention by urging middle powers to defend their sovereignty together as larger countries increasingly use economic and military pressure to secure their interests.That message has landed amid an escalating Canada-US trade dispute involving 50% American tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods and Canadian retaliation. Trump has warned Canadian leaders to “fall in line” or face consequences “far WORSE” than existing tariffs.Whether Carney’s approach will win over the Nobel Committee remains unknown. Political observers say an award for the Canadian prime minister could further strain his relationship with Trump..WATCH LIVE: Carney to Trump administration: ‘Stop doing memes’ and get serious.“President Trump would be furious, of course,” McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland said.“If this ever happens, I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office to see the president’s face when he learns about it.”Trump has repeatedly argued he deserves the peace prize, saying in July he “should have won that award more than anybody.”He already holds a Nobel medal, although the honour was awarded to someone else.Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won the 2025 prize, gave Trump her medal during a White House visit in January. The Nobel Committee stressed the prize itself remains hers.“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said University of Toronto professor emeritus Nelson Wiseman. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”Carney is also attracting attention as a potential choice for Time magazine’s Person of the Year, an honour Trump has received twice.On Tuesday, Carney ranked second on major prediction markets behind New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Time is scheduled to announce its selection December 10.The magazine has already included Carney among its 100 most influential people of 2026, citing his growing popularity as he challenged Trump..‘It’s Lake Ontario’: Carney, Clinton reject Trump’s ‘Lake America’ order.New York University professor Scott Galloway predicted Carney would receive the year-end recognition, describing him as “the leader that Europe’s been looking for, for the last 20 years.”“I believe, hands down, Time’s Person of the Year has already been decided and it’s going to be Mark Carney,” Galloway said.That prediction does not constitute an announcement from the magazine.Speaking on Galloway’s podcast, journalist Fareed Zakaria said Carney had given countries navigating a less predictable United States “a kind of language and a path” toward new alliances.Carney’s international profile rose sharply following his January address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he argued the previous international order would not return.“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition,” Carney said in a speech that received a standing ovation.His remarks came as European leaders confronted Trump’s push to acquire Greenland and threats of additional tariffs.Carney has since pursued closer ties with Europe and new partnerships in Asia as American tariffs put pressure on Canada’s longstanding economic relationship with the United States.European lawmakers gave him another standing ovation this month as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed allowing Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member.“Carney’s international profile has been driven by his standing up to Trump, unlike the Europeans and Asians who rushed to make deals with him,” Wiseman said. “Trump’s pressure on Canada has helped elevate Carney in the eyes of the world.”
