The Carney government may meet its NATO defence promise this year only by relying on a “rounding difference,” according to the Parliamentary Budget Office, raising fresh doubts about Ottawa’s claims it is hitting key military spending goals.
Appearing before the Senate national finance committee, Interim Budget Officer Jason Jacques said Canada is only “close” to the NATO benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defence by December 31 — a target Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeatedly touted as a done deal.
Blacklock's Reporter said Jacques warned the final number may depend on accounting margins rather than major new commitments.
Carney promised in June that cabinet would reach the 2% threshold by year’s end, calling it essential for Canada’s security and pledging roughly $9 billion in additional defence spending.
He insisted the country would not only meet the NATO goal years early but also ramp up defence spending over time.
Weeks later, Carney went even further, declaring Canada would spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 — a figure no NATO nation currently comes close to reaching.
He said the country “has to” meet that ambition to confront rising threats.
But Jacques told senators the path to 5% remains unclear.
He said the Budget Office has been unable to determine how much of the $80 billion announced in Budget 2025 is actually new money.
He noted there is “not really a clear path” to achieving the 5% target and suggested the plan is still “a work in progress.”
