TORONTO — Olivia Chow’s lead over Brad Bradford has narrowed to under three points in a new Mainstreet Research poll, with the race now inside the margin of error two weeks before election day.The survey of 1,000 Toronto residents, taken Oct. 6 and 7, put the mayor at 40.8% and Bradford at 38.3% among all respondents, with 10% undecided. Among decided and leaning voters the gap was 2.9 points. In a head-to-head that excluded other names, Chow led 44.7% to 41.5%. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.Mainstreet’s previous snapshot, taken Sept. 28 and 29, had Chow ahead by roughly six points, at 38.1% to Bradford’s 32.2%, with Chris Alexander at 7.2%. Alexander suspended his campaign on Oct. 6. Quito Maggi, Mainstreet’s president, said the race is now coming down to the wire and that Bradford may have momentum. He added that, with a short runway remaining, the chances of a Chow re-election are less and less certain.The survey showed a gender split. Chow led among women. Bradford led among men. Younger voters preferred Chow. Older voters preferred Bradford. Maggi said Chow still leads in downtown, Scarborough and North York, while Bradford leads in Etobicoke..Election day is Oct. 26. Advance voting continues. Bradford has run on a one-year property-tax freeze, a cut to the city’s land-transfer tax, and a reduction in water bills. Chow has raised residential rates 9.5%, then 6.9%, then 2.2% — more than 18% over her term — and has said future increases would stay at or around inflation. She has not set a hard cap. In debates she has said the earlier rises paid for libraries, more TTC service, school meals and work on the Gardiner.Other recent polls have also shown a close contest. A Nanos survey for CTV, taken Oct. 8–10, put Chow at 51% to Bradford’s 47% among decided voters. A Liaison Strategies poll released today had Chow at 51% to Bradford’s 46% among decided and leaning voters, with renters favouring Chow and homeowners favouring Bradford. Maggi said turnout among older voters, who lean toward Bradford, will matter. The next mayoral debate is Thursday at the Rotman School of Management.
