Canada is on track to fall well short of federal housing construction targets, with new CMHC projections showing the country needs roughly twice as many new homes as currently forecast to restore pre-pandemic affordability.“Based on our current projection, Canada still faces a long-term housing supply gap of 187,000 to 238,000 homes per year over the next decade,” Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said in its Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report.Blacklock's Reporter said the figures come despite repeated claims from the federal government that it is accelerating housing construction.CMHC estimates Canada needs between 417,000 and 469,000 new homes annually through 2036 to bring affordability back to pre-pandemic levels.“Construction is expected to slow faster than demand, leaving Canada short of the roughly 417,000 to 469,000 homes needed each year to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036,” said the report.“Not building enough during the current housing downturn is a key risk.”CMHC said the scale of the shortage means construction would have to increase dramatically from current projections.“Canada still needs roughly twice as much housing construction as is currently projected to improve affordability over the next decade,” said the report.The largest annual shortfall is projected in Toronto, where CMHC estimates approximately 42,000 additional homes would be required each year. The agency said “new construction activity has weakened sharply” in Canada's largest city.Montréal faces a projected annual shortfall of 22,000 homes, followed by Vancouver at 20,000, Edmonton at 15,000 and Ottawa at 11,000.CMHC analysts said similar problems are appearing across Canada's largest housing markets, with much of the current construction activity coming from projects already underway rather than newly launched developments..Current building rates are “increasingly driven by projects under construction while new project launches have weakened in many markets,” said the report.CMHC said rental markets are showing signs of improvement as construction of purpose-built rental housing increases supply and slows rent growth.The projections contrast with the federal government's repeated assurances that it is dramatically increasing Canada's housing supply.“We’re building more homes, faster,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said July 20.Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has also said Ottawa intends to dramatically expand construction.“We are focused on building big,” Robertson told the House of Commons. “We will use all the tools of the federal government to deliver. We have a lot of opportunities ahead of us. We have to stay focused.”Robertson told the Commons finance committee last October that the government remained committed to a longer-term goal of at least 500,000 housing starts annually.“That is the longer term goal that we had,” he said.Conservative Calgary East MP Jasraj Hallan questioned Robertson about whether that target was realistic, noting it would require construction of about 57 homes every hour, around the clock, throughout the year.“Are you currently building 57 homes an hour?” Hallan asked.“We are not,” Robertson replied. “Canada is not building at that scale.”Robertson acknowledged reaching that level of construction would require significant changes in the housing industry.“That certainly will take many years to achieve given the changes that need to be made in the industry,” he said.“At this point we don’t have the labour force to manufacture at that scale.”
