Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is cautioning Canadians against reading too much into last summer’s temporary boost in housing starts, warning that long-term construction trends continue to decline.Blacklock's Reporter says the federal insurer reported that total monthly seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts fell 15% in January to 238,059 units, more than offsetting December’s increase. “This highlights the volatility of month-over-month starts and the caution with which they should be interpreted,” CMHC said in its Housing Starts For January 2026 report.“The six-month trend has decreased for the fourth consecutive month, which is in line with recent signs of slowing momentum in residential construction,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, deputy chief economist. She cited high construction costs, weaker demand, trade and geopolitical uncertainty, and growing inventories as factors dampening the market. “Near-term improvements in housing supply are unlikely, reflecting the on-the-ground sentiments we’ve heard from developers over the past several months,” she added.While urban housing starts rose 6% in 2025, from 227,697 in 2024 to 241,171, CMHC said much of that momentum was concentrated in the spring and summer. .Since September, housing starts have consistently declined, and the six-month trend was flat heading into 2026.Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has repeatedly cited temporary gains as evidence that “our plan is working,” pointing to piecemeal data showing starts about 14% higher than the previous September. “We are seeing good housing starts in many cities across the country,” Robertson told the Commons, asserting his government is delivering on affordability.CMHC, however, projects housing starts will continue to decline through 2026 and remain far below the 500,000 annual starts the government considers necessary to restore affordability. “New home construction is set to decline through 2028 as developers face high costs, weaker demand and more unsold homes,” the February Housing Market Outlook said. Condominium starts are expected to be especially weak, while rental projects will continue to drive supply but at a moderated pace.
