A poll conducted by Pallas Data on Thursday has found that the BC Conservatives and BC NDP are neck and neck.It is the first major survey released in the wake of BC United-Liberals leader Kevin Falcon's decision to suspend his party's campaign.According to the poll, 44% of British Columbians plan on voting for David Eby's incumbents, while 43% said they would be supporting John Rustad and his crew of newcomers. The margin of error was +/- 3.4%, meaning the two parties are essentially tied. The Conservatives were more popular in rural BC, while the NDP still maintained a sizeable lead on Vancouver Island. Greater Vancouver skewed slightly left, but the two parties were still within 5%..One model using the data found that it would result in a hung parliament, with the NDP taking 47 seats to the Conservatives' 46.Nearly half of the 821 respondents said they believed the province was "headed in the wrong direction," with the vast majority of those who argued things were fine identifying as NDP voters. Women, and those over 65 were also more likely to believe Eby had done a good job as premier.When asked about Falcon's move, over 40% said they disapproved, compared to 32% who approved. The results fell along party lines, with NDP and Green voters falling into the former camp and Conservatives into the latter.In a press release, Pallas Data founder and CEO Dr. Joseph Angolano argued that Falcon's decision "did not have the intended effect of giving the Conservatives a bigger lead over the NDP, at least not immediately.""These results mean either one of two things," he added. "The first is that voters are still considering their options in the context of this news about BC United’s halting of its campaign. The other is that the bulk of right-of-centre United supporters had already left for the Conservatives before Falcon's announcement, and those remaining supporters were sticking around under the United brand because they did not feel ideologically aligned with the Conservatives."Angolano suggested that the results showed BC United was "more a coalition of centrist voters," and that, "some of those voters will go to the NDP and Greens now that United have left the ballot."
