The latest projections from 338Canada show the Conservatives making gains in British Columbia.
On their map, the entire province is blue — save for the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver Island.
According to 338Canada, of BC's 43 ridings, 16 are either "leaning," "likely," or "safe" for the Conservatives. A further 10 are "toss ups" between the Conservatives and Liberals, and in some cases the NDP.
The Liberals, meanwhile, are either "leaning," "likely," or "safe" in 13 ridings, and the NDP fall into those categories in just one. The seats previously held by the NDP are split between the Conservatives and Liberals, though many are toss ups.
Perhaps most shocking is the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, which has been a Green Party stronghold for years. Modelling from 338Canada shows that seat — which had long been held by leader Elizabeth May — as a toss up.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has spent a fair amount of time in BC during his campaign, visiting the province on three separate occasions. Liberal leader Mark Carney, on the other hand, has only visited the province once, and did not venture beyond the southwest corner.
The Conservatives' apparent success in BC comes following a right wing surge in the provincial election in October 2024. The BC Conservatives flipped a number of ridings to become the official opposition, nearly beating the BC NDP to form government.
