The Conservatives had a considerable lead in early October polls, but after Hamas attacked Israel, with a lacklustre response from the Liberals, more voters switched to the Conservatives.All major polling companies in Canada show the Conservatives lead the Liberals by at least 10 points.The Conservatives are positioned for a massive landslide under leader Pierre Poilievre if the polls continue to hold, setting the stage for the biggest election victory since 1984.According to recent projections from a Nanos poll, the Conservatives could win approximately 202 seats and the Liberals drop to only 81 seats..Other than Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals are now in third place. This is especially surprising in Atlantic Canada, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau managed to sweep all the ridings when he came to power in 2015.Since choosing Poilievre as their leader in September 2022, the Conservatives have steadily gained support.The Conservatives are even now the preferred party for Canadians under 29.By the summer of 2023, the Conservatives had gained enough support it became possible for them to win the next election with at least a minority government and a slight chance at a small majority.In key regions for the Liberals, Northern Ontario and Atlantic Canada, people stopped supporting the Trudeau government. This meant that the Conservatives could now win many of the Liberal-held ridings.The increase in support for the Conservatives happened because of rising inflation, with rent prices and the cost of food spiralling out of control.Another reason the Liberals lost support in Atlantic Canada was because gas prices increased with a new federal carbon price starting on July 1.In an October survey by Mainstreet, the Conservatives had a 13% lead. People were most upset with the Trudeau government over housing affordability, with 64% saying the Liberals were not “doing enough to restore affordability to the housing market.”The Nanos survey showed Trudeau’s popularity appears to be over.Poilievre’s popularity has reached the same level as former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper at the peak of his popularity.Voters see Poilievre as the best choice to deal with unaffordability, inflation and the economic slowdown.A survey from Angus Reid Institute on October 18 showed 57% of Canadians want Trudeau to step down before the next election, including 41% of Liberals. Only 44% of Liberal supporters want Trudeau to lead the Liberals in the next election. Trudeau’s disapproval rating sits at 65%.
