Defence Minister Bill Blair’s department will not disclose figures to substantiate its claim Canada will meet its 2% GDP NATO spending target.The Department of National Defence (DND) invoked cabinet secrecy in refusing to divulge the information to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), according to Blacklock’s Reporter. “Work is currently underway within National Defence in collaboration with other government departments and central agencies to detail the spending projections associated with this announcement and in particular follow-on spending between 2030 and 2032,” Deputy Minister Stefanie Beck wrote the PBO.“This information remains under cabinet confidence and is expected to take some time to finalize.”Beck set no deadline to “finalize” the figures. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced July 11 that Canada planned by 2032 to meet its NATO obligation of spending a minimum 2% of economic production on defence. .Cabinet’s refusal to release the data follows a July 8 PBO report that accused the DND of inflating figures. Analysts confirmed in a report Canada’s military expenditure and the NATO 2% spending target there was a “difference between the Budget Office and Department of National Defence forecasts.”The defence department in an April 8 budget note on national defence spending predicted military expenditures would grow to 1.76% of GDP by 2030. The Budget Office said based on existing figures the 2030 spending would be no more than 1.4% percent of GDP.“The Budget Office’s projection of major equipment expenditure is lower than that of the defence department since recent experience as well as multiple Budget Office reports suggest a high likelihood of delays and lapsed appropriations,” wrote analysts.“Second, the defence department’s forecast uses the OECD outlook for nominal GDP in line with NATO publications on military expenditures,” said the report.“The Budget Office uses its own outlook.”Budget Officer Yves Giroux earlier noted Canada fell short of the NATO target though it included in its calculation such elements as veterans’ pensions and funding for the Coast Guard. “We’re talking about tens of billions of dollars to reach this rate,” Giroux testified at 2022 hearings of the Commons Government Operations Committee.Blair has repeatedly claimed Canada will reach the NATO target without specifying where or how. “The 2% commitment is a challenge for Canada to reach,” Blair told reporters June 19. “We are going to reach it. Spending that money well so we can reassure Canadians that we’re getting good public value for every dollar they invest in defence is also my responsibility.”“We recognize we have a commitment to reach 2%,” said Blair. “I believe we must inevitably reach that level of spending.”
