If the results of British Columbia's recent election are any indication, we could see a major shakeup across the province at a federal level.
The changing political winds and plummeting support for Jagmeet Singh's NDP will likely make BC a battleground for the Liberals and Conservatives.
Let's break it all down.
Background
In the 2021 federal election, the Conservatives garnered 33.1% of the vote, with the Liberals, NDP, and Greens receiving 26.9%, 29.3%, and 5.4%, respectively.
As a result of the way Canada's electoral system works, however, the Liberals came away with the most seats, 15, while the Conservatives and NDP both took 13, and the Greens managed to hold on to one.
Changes to the Electoral Map
In response to population growth, BC has seen its electoral boundaries shifted. The number of ridings has risen from 42 to 43.
In the 2021 election, for example, there were three ridings that included parts of Burnaby. This time around, there are four. Burnaby South has been divided into the newly created ridings of Burnaby Central and Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby.
Burnaby North-Seymour has been expanded to include two slivers of Lynn Valley west of Mountain Highway. They previously belonged to North Vancouver, which itself now extends into West Vancouver's Ambleside neighbourhood, an area that had been part of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.
Further east, Langley-Aldergrove has been divided into two ridings, Langley Township-Fraser Heights, and Abbotsford-South Langley, the latter of which took the southwestern quarter of the old Abbotsford riding. Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon has been renamed Mission-Matsqui-Abbotsford and now includes the eastern half of the old Abbotsford riding.
In the interior, the biggest change has been the splitting up of Kelowna-Lake Country into the ridings of Okanagan Lake West-South Kelowna and Kelowna. The old riding's northeastern section has been absorbed into the brand new riding of Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee.
Who's in, who's out?
A total of eight MPs are not running for re-election in BC. Among them are four Liberals: Vancouver Quadra's Joyce Murray, Fleetwood-Port Kells' Ken Hardie, Delta's Carla Qualtrough, and Vancouver South's Harjit Sajjan; two NDPers: South Okanagan-West Kootenay's Richard Cannings and North Island-Powell River's Rachel Blaney; one Conservative: Abbotsford's Ed Fast; and one Green: Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke's Randall Garrison.
While the Liberals have not yet nominated candidates in over 20 ridings across the province, the Conservatives have a nearly full slate. Among them are a number of political newcomers throwing their hat into the ring for the first time. They include Mauro Francis in Burnaby North-Seymour and Aaron Gunn in North Island-Powell River.
Ridings to watch
Burnaby Central:
Under Jagmeet Singh's leadership, the NDP has seen its support across Canada dissipate, and the change has been perhaps most palpable in BC. Whether the people of Burnaby trust Singh enough to re-elect him for a third time remains to be seen.
The NDP leader would have been an incumbent in either Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby or Burnaby Central, but has chosen to run in the latter. He will be up against the Liberals' Wade Chang and Conservatives' James Yan.
North Island-Powell River:
Northern Vancouver Island was one of the many ridings across the province that flipped from BC NDP to the BC Conservatives in last year's election, hinting at a possible upset on the federal level. With North Island-Powell River's NDP incumbent Rachel Blaney not running, Conservative Aaron Gunn has a chance to turn the riding blue.
The commentator and filmmaker best known for his Politics Explained series and Vancouver is Dying film documenting the failures of the Trudeau Liberals has made him well known in right-wing circles, and he has been busy broadening his base of support in the community.
Kelowna:
Two-time Kelowna-Lake Country MP and Conservative incumbent Tracy Gray will be running against the Liberals' Stephen Fuhr, who represented that riding before her. Kelowna's redrawn electoral boundaries could swing the pendulum either way.
Big issues
According to a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, Canadians are most concerned about the rising cost of living, health care, and Donald Trump's increasingly serious threats against Canada's economy and sovereignty. These mirror the major issues cited by British Columbians in a Leger poll from February.
Where things sit
A poll conducted by Liaison Strategies between March 17-19 found that in BC, the Conservatives currently sit at 44%. The Liberals are not far behind at 39%, while the NDP are a distant third at just 8%. The Greens have managed to hold on to 3%, largely in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, which party leader Elizabeth May has represented since 2011.
The People's Party, which has nominated a nearly full slate of candidates, sits at 4% support, though that is scattered across the province. They did not win a seat in the last federal election.
