Website 338Canada.com projects a Liberal majority government, thanks to provinces that receive equalization payments.
The site expects 178 seats for the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), enough for a slim majority. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) are second at 130, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 25, the NDP at 8, and Greens at 2.
The site estimates a 63% chance of the LPC winning a majority government, a 28% chance of winning only a plurality of seats, and 9% chance of the CPC winning a plurality of seats. A tie or a Conservative majority are given less than a 1% chance.
The Liberal vote is projected at 39%, followed by the Conservatives at 37%, with a 4% margin of error. The NDP trail at 11%, the Bloc at 7%, and the Greens at 2%.
The only provinces with a projected CPC majority are B.C., Alberta, and Saskatchewan. They are also the only provinces contributing to the federal equalization program.
B.C. is expected to have 22 CPC, 1 Green, 1 New Democratic Party (NDP), and 19 LPC–mostly in Vancouver, Surrey, Burnaby, and Victoria. In Alberta, the CPC are expected to take 30 seats, leaving the LPC 5 seats and the NDP 2, with Edmonton being a hotly contested battleground. All 14 Saskatchewan seats are expected to vote Conservative, except for the northern riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, which will likely vote LPC.
A national map on the federal webpage allows users to click on their province and find out where swing ridings are. These ridings are classified as “safe”, “likely”, or “leaning” for one party or another, or a “toss up.” Although the provincial maps show no undecideds, this drill-down at the riding level shows many races too close to reliably call.
BC “toss-up” ridings include Port Moody-Coquitlam and South Surrey–White Rock, where both the LPC and CPC are in contention. Saanich–Gulf Islands, the long-time riding of Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May, is listed as a three-way battle between the Liberals, Conservatives, and Greens. Two ridings lean CPC, three lean LPC leaning, and Vancouver East leans NDP.
Alberta toss-ups between the Liberals and Conservatives include Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Skyview, Edmonton Gateway. Edmonton Griesbach is primarily a CPC/NDP battle. Edmonton ridings that are CPC leaning include Manning, Northwest, Riverbend, and West, while Edmonton Southeast leans LPC.
On the Prairies, LPC Ralph Goodale’s former riding of Regina–Wascana is still leaning for CPC incumbent Michael Kram. In Winnipeg, Elmwood–Transcona, Kildonan–St. Paul, and Winnipeg Centre are toss-ups. Northern Manitoba’s riding of Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, won by the NDP in 2021, now leans LPC.
In Ontario, the LPC is winning 43% to the Conservatives’ 39%, with a 6% margin of error. Here, 78 seats are expected to go LPC, 40 CPC, 3 NDP, and Kitchener Centre Green MP Mike Morrice is expected to be re-elected. Every riding is expected to go as it did in 2021, except for five “toss up” ridings held by NDP or Liberal incumbents: Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener South—Hespeler, Milton East—Halton Hills South, and Windsor West.
In Quebec, LPC support has surged at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois since the Liberal leadership race began. The LPC is expected to take 36% of the vote and 39 of 78 seats, while the Bloc is expected to take 28% of the vote and 25 seats, the CPC 23% of the vote and 13 seats, and the NDP 7% of the vote as they keep the Montreal riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie.
The Liberals are expected to keep all their former Quebec seats, as will the CPC, except for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which is a toss-up with the Bloc. However, the Bloc could bleed in many ridings. Two former Bloc ridings are leaning CPC. Quebec suburb Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville is now likely to vote LPC, and two other Bloc ridings are likely to vote LPC. Four other Bloc ridings are toss ups, three with the Liberals and Trois-Rivières with the CPC.
The CPC faces an uphill battle in Atlantic Canada, where Tobique—Mactaquac in New Brunswick is the only likely Conservative win. Of the other seven CPC seats from 2021, two lean CPC, three are tossups with the LPC. South Shore—St. Margarets, Nova Scotia is LPC leaning, and Central Newfoundland is LPC likely. All remaining seats are LPC safe or LPC likely. The Liberals swept Atlantic Canada in 2015.
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. The website was created by Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
