EXCLUSIVE POLL: Carney Liberals on the heels of Conservatives in Alberta

CALGARY — A new Mainstreet Research poll commissioned by the Western Standard is challenging assumptions about Alberta’s federal political landscape, showing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals almost neck and neck in the province.Albertans surveyed were asked, “If a federal election were held today, which party/leader would you vote for?”Among decided voters, the Conservatives sit at 48% while the Liberals are right behind at a surprising 45% — a narrow three-point gap that effectively amounts to a statistical dead heat in a province that has historically delivered dominant victories for the Conservative Party.The federal NDP, under the interim leadership of Don Davies, trailed far behind at 5% of decided voters.The Green Party and People’s Party of Canada both received 1% support.If undecided voters are included, 8% said they didn’t know which party they would pick.“This was a shocking result,” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said..Maggi said the top-line federal numbers initially surprised him, but further examination of the current national political landscape made the result more understandable.“With the economic environment we’re finding ourselves in, with the possibility of a referendum in Alberta, with talk of economic union with the United States — all of that factors in,” Maggi said.He also pointed to what he described as Mark Carney negotiating “in good faith” on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an energy agreement with Premier Danielle Smith, which may have improved the Liberal leader’s standing among some Albertans.Still, Maggi cautioned that a near tie in vote share does not necessarily translate into Liberal seat gains.“Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, you’re looking at a very large Conservative lead,” he stated.“Competitive races in the cities could still lead to a near Conservative sweep or just a handful of seats for the Liberals.”Even so, he acknowledged that, if translated efficiently, these numbers could theoretically produce “eight to ten seats for the Liberals in Alberta,” something he called unprecedented in his lifetime.The competitiveness in the poll is driven by stark demographic splits.The gender gap is particularly pronounced, as men predominantly would vote Conservative, with 55.9% support compared to 35.9% for the Liberals.Among women, the Liberals lead decisively at 53.9%, while the Conservatives trail at 40%..Age also plays a crucial role, as voters aged 35 to 49 strongly favour the Conservatives, 53.6% to 36.6%.Younger voters, however, aged 18 to 34 lean Liberal, 45.5% to 41.6%.Seniors aged 65 and over also backed Carney at 50.2%.“Poilievre is not perceived — especially by older voters — as serious,” Maggi said, arguing that Carney’s experience and background may resonate more strongly with that demographic.Perhaps the most surprising figure is Liberal support outside Calgary and Edmonton.In the rest of Alberta — effectively rural and smaller-city Alberta — Carney still attracts roughly 38% support among decided voters, a number that is unusually high for a Liberal leader in rural Alberta.Maggi offered several possible explanations, such as the fact that Carney’s roots in Western Canada are possibly helping to soften partisan resistance.He also stated that the Prime Minister’s handling of US President Donald Trump may have also appealed to rural voters.“People who are fiscal conservatives but who respect Carney’s background and experience — and the way he’s dealing with Trump — may be willing to consider him,” Maggi said.He also acknowledged that personal perceptions of Poilievre could be limiting Conservative gains, even among some right-leaning voters.In Calgary, the Liberals lead by almost 50%, which is surprising, as Alberta’s largest city has long been known as a Conservative stronghold.In Edmonton, Carney’s government also holds a strong 48% over Poilievre’s party at 41.3%.However, in the rest of Alberta, the Conservatives still command 55% support — a margin large enough to possibly keep the province slightly blue overall.The survey was conducted from February 10 to 12, 2026, with a sample of 1,504 adults aged 18 and older living in Alberta and was intended to represent the voting population.The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Carney Liberals on the heels of Conservatives in Alberta

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