CALGARY — Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has been voted as the figure Albertans would most like to see leading the anti-independence campaign.In an exclusive poll commissioned by the Western Standard and conducted by Mainstreet Research, Kenney took the top spot, with 17% of Alberta respondents choosing the former Conservative leader.Current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi came in a close second at 13%, tying with Prime Minister Mark Carney.Former deputy Alberta premier and Forever Canada petition proponent Thomas Lukaszuk registered 10%, while former premier Rachel Notley rounded out the candidates with 7%.However, 40% of those surveyed said they don’t know who would be the most effective spokesperson against the independence movement.No single political figure rises above the mid-teens in support, underscoring what appears to be a leadership vacuum on the federalist side of the debate..Tom Flanagan, former political science professor at the University of Calgary and longtime adviser to former prime minister Stephen Harper, said the numbers suggest there is no clear standard-bearer for the pro-Canada side.“It suggests that there’s no obvious person at the moment in people’s minds,” Flanagan told the Western Standard.“The difference between 17 and 13 is really pretty insignificant. What’s significant is that all those numbers are relatively small and the ‘don’t know’ is big at 40%.”Flanagan added the data indicates that “nobody has really emerged as the right spokesman” for federalism in Alberta.Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said Kenney’s top showing was not entirely unexpected, particularly given his recent public visibility.“I think he’s been fairly outspoken on a number of things,” Maggi said.“Whether or not that points to some kind of political revival for Mr. Kenney, I can’t really speak to that, but he’s someone that both progressives and conservatives respect.”Maggi pointed to Kenney’s commentary since leaving office — particularly on Canada–US relations and national unity— as factors that may be keeping him top of mind across party lines.“He’s someone that people across the political spectrum do respect,” Maggi said.“So that number didn’t really surprise me.”Kenney has made a series of national media appearances in recent months and has been very active on social media platforms weighing in against Alberta independence, a move that both Maggi and Flanagan suggested may help explain his continued relevance.By contrast, both observers suggested Notley’s lower result likely reflects her diminished public profile.“I haven’t heard anything from her in years,” Flanagan said.Maggi echoed that assessment, saying her result appears to reflect an “out of sight, out of mind” dynamic.“She hasn’t been publicly outspoken on too many things, especially since leaving the legislature,” Maggi said.As for Lukaszuk, who has been active with his own anti-independence petition campaign, Flanagan described him as having always been more of a niche and sometimes controversial political figure.“Even when he was active in politics, he was kind of a controversial figure,” Flanagan said, suggesting that may limit his broader appeal, particularly during his time as part of former premier Alison Redford’s provincial government.The survey also showed a strong partisan pattern in how voters answered the question..Among UCP supporters, Kenney is the clear favourite at 23.1%, though more than half — 53% — still say they don’t know who would be most effective.Very few UCP voters select Nenshi (6.2%) or Notley (4.1%).Among NDP supporters, 21.5% chose Nenshi, 16.9% chose Carney and 11% chose Notley.Only about 24% of NDP voters say they are unsure — a number far lower than among UCP supporters.Federal voting intentions reveal a similar divide. .Among Liberal voters, 19% favour Carney as the best spokesperson against independence, while 18.8% choose Nenshi and 15.4% select Kenney.Just 21.8% of Liberal voters are unsure.By contrast, more than half of federal Conservative supporters — 53.1% — say they don’t know who should lead the campaign to remain in Canada.Among federal NDP voters, 30% choose Nenshi.The data also shows differences depending on how Albertans currently feel about independence itself.Among respondents who say they would vote for Alberta to become an independent country, 53.5% say they don’t know who would be an effective anti-independence spokesperson with only 21.5% naming Kenney.Among those who say they would vote to remain in Canada, uncertainty drops to 30.6%.In that group, Nenshi leads at 17.9%, followed closely by Carney at 16.3% and Kenney at 13.4%.Flanagan said that if Alberta were ever to move toward a serious referendum, political alignments could shift in unexpected ways.He pointed to the 1992 Charlottetown Accord referendum, when Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and the NDP all supported the constitutional deal, while Reform opposed it — creating unusual political alliances.“If we ever get to a stage of an actual serious referendum, this is probably bound to happen,” Flanagan said.“There will be people from all the mainstream parties on the stay side, and on the go side you’ll have people from various independence groupings and factions.”The Mainstreet Research survey was conducted from February 10 to 12, 2026, among 1,504 Alberta adults aged 18 and older.The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.
