An exclusive Mainstreet Research Poll commissioned by the Western Standard shows opposition to continued lockdowns and other COVID-19 restrictions are on the rise, and there are sharp divisions in the province over the issue..Of the 1,010 Albertans surveyed, 52% said that they supported continued lockdowns and 45% said they should be ended immediately..While those in support had a slight edge in overall support, the intensity of those who were fiercely opposed was more than twice that of those who were strongly supportive..The poll was conducted between May 19-20, 2021 with a scientifically-weighted sample size of 1,010 adults living in Alberta. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cell phones and the results have a margin of error of +/- 3% with a confidence level of 95%..Most of those who said they were opposed (25%) agreed “The lockdown and all restrictions should be ended immediately,” and another 20% agreed with the statement: “The lockdown should end immediately with some restrictions to be kept in place temporarily.”.The 52% of survey respondents who said they supported continued lockdowns were markedly less adamant. Of those respondents, 41% agreed: “The lockdown and all restrictions should continue until Public Health officials say it is safe,” while just 11% agreed with the statement: “The lockdown and all restrictions should continue until COVID−19 vaccination of the entire Alberta population.”.While the proportion of Albertans supporting continued lockdowns continues to hold a slim majority, that majority has slipped markedly since the same questions were polled in early January 2021. That poll showed that a combination of hardcore and softcore lockdown supporters added up to 57%, now down to 52%.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-Jan-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns, Jan and May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .By contrast, combined hardcore and softcore lockdown opponents have increased from 39% to 45%. Of note is the massive increase in hardcore opposition from just 12% in January, to 25% in May..Support for, and opposition to, lockdowns also cuts clearly along partisan lines..Among current NDP voters, 85.3% said that lockdowns should continue, including 18.7% who were hard pro-lockdown. Just 11.8% of NDP voters support ending lockdowns..Among current UCP voters, 55.3% said they were opposed to continued lockdowns, including 25.4% who were hard anti-lockdown. This number is significantly higher among those who voted UCP in 2019, however, with a combined 62.6%, including 38.3% who are hard anti-lockdown supporters..Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi pointed to Alberta Premier Kenney’s COVID-19 policies as a key driver of plummeting UCP support.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-parties-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns by party voters, May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .“It’s a near-impossible task for Jason Kenney in terms of how he handles the pandemic,” said Maggi. “When we look at why people don’t approve of how he’s handling [COVID-19], you have a mix of people on the left who say he’s not strict enough, and people on the right who say the lockdown must end. That’s what’s driving that vote.”.That poll released yesterday saw the UCP trailing the NDP in second place, at 28% and 35% respectively, and the Wildrose Independence Party growing to 16% support..Wildrose voters were even more likely than UCP voters to oppose continued lockdowns, with a combined 88.3%, and 69% which were hard anti-lockdown. Just 11.7% of Wildrose voters said they support continued lockdowns..The poll’s data also found deep regional divisions across Alberta..Support for continued lockdowns was highest in Edmonton, with a combined 63.8%, and 33.7% opposed. In Calgary, support for lockdowns was still in the majority at 58.7%, but a growing 37.5% in opposition..The “rest of Alberta” – which includes both rural areas and smaller urban areas – deviated sharply from the two big cities. There, 58.9% said the lockdown should end immediately, with 36.5% in the hard anti-lockdown camp. Pro-lockdown support in the “rest of Alberta” made up 37.7%.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-regions-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns by region, May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .The debate over COVID-19 lockdowns and other restrictions is driving a large shift in the Alberta political landscape. In the same survey, Albertans were asked which party they voted for in the last election, and which party they would vote for if an election were held today..The NDP lead the pack with 35% among decided and leaning voters. The UCP is in second with 28%, and the Wildrose Independence Party has pushed itself into a competitive third place at 16%. .Another 7% of voters were undecided; with 5% for the Alberta Party, 3% for the Liberals, 2% for the Greens, and 3% for “other.” .Maggi said Alberta’s political environment is quickly becoming a three-party system as the unpopularity of Kenney weighs heavily on UCP support..“My advice federally to Conservatives is to not be within a mile of Jason Kenney right now. His performance on the pandemic – on both ends of the spectrum – is putting a taint on all Conservatives. This is causing an uptick in Maverick Party support, and Wildrose support..“Being a three-way race [outside the two big cities], you’re talking three seats for Wildrose Independence, minimum. I’m sure some of the modellers are going to look at these numbers and release seat projections. The more important number is those in Calgary and Edmonton, because they come one-for-one from UCP support.”. POLL: Large majority of Albertans disapprove of Kenney’s pandemic performance .The UCP, NDP and Wildrose are locked in a tight three-way race outside of the two big cities, at 31.7%, 23.0%, and 23.1% respectively..“The most surprising number provincially is the Wildrose Independence support in both Edmonton and Calgary being in the double digits”, said Maggi. .The NDP hold a slight edge in Calgary at 36.6%, followed closely by the UCP at 32.6%, and the Wildrose at 10%..In Edmonton, the NDP have a commanding lead at 49.1%, far ahead of the UCP at 19.4%, and the Wildrose at 12.3%..While the NDP leads province-wide, the numbers don’t necessarily point to an NDP majority government..“The only path to a majority (NDP leader) Rachel Notley has is a sweep of Edmonton, a sweep of Calgary, and a handful of rural seats.” .Asked what’s driving the shift in party support, Maggi pointed primarily to Kenney’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. .“It’s the performance of the UCP on the pandemic. When very few strongly approve of Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, and a huge number strongly disapprove. There’s your answer right there.”.Just 48% of those who voted UCP in 2019 say they intend to do so again. The NDP has held 86.9% of its 2019 support, and picked up 12.3% of those who voted UCP, and 31.3% of those who voted Alberta Party. .The Wildrose has consolidated much of the support from the smaller rightist/sovereigntist parties in 2019, and picked up 23.7% of those who voted UCP, and 23.1% of those who voted Alberta Party. The Alberta Party has retained just 35.2% of those who voted for them in 2019. .Maggi was not optimistic when asked if Kenney can reclaim most of the wayward Wildrose voters..“It’s hard to say right now. I’d have to see what things look like in a year. But when you look at how many want Kenney to step down as premier, including those who voted UCP, it didn’t all go to the Wildrose, but some has gone to the NDP..“Once a vote intention changes like that, it tends to be sticky. It’s hard to win it back. When a party is losing moderates to the NDP, and conservatives to the Wildrose, it’s hard to imagine coming out of that nosedive. It’s a pretty daunting task.”.Maggi says the news could get worse for Kenney once Wildrose elected a permanent leader and develops a personal brand, “but it depends on who that leader is.” .The Wildrose Independence Party is currently holding a leadership race with the only declared candidate so far Paul Hinman, the founding leader of the original Wildrose Alliance Party. As the only candidate in the race, he will face an up-or-down vote by party members on August 28..Growing tension in the UCP bubbled to the surface when 17 UCP MLAs signed an open letter condemning Kenney for putting Alberta back under a third lockdown. Kenney’s dismissal of the letter led to a series of leaks from the UCP caucus, with several MLAs telling the Western Standard the premier threatened them with an early election if they did not have confidence in his leadership..Soon after a rogue rodeo in Bowden, Alta. to protest the third lockdown, UCP MLAs told the Western Standard Kenney said in reference to the attendees, ““If they are our base, I want a new base.”.Kenney denied the story as “fake news” and said the comments were only referring to people making death threats against him, but UCP MLAs told the Western Standard Kenney was “lying.”.Last week Kenney moved to expel two rebel MLAs from the UCP Caucus after Todd Loewen published a letter calling for the premier’s resignation. .The move comes as the caucus and party has been wracked by internal infighting over issues of Kenney’s “Fair Deal Panel,” and most significantly the government’s reaction to COVID-19..Download the poll’s full data tables and methodology here.Download.Western Standard Staff.news@westernstandardonline.com
An exclusive Mainstreet Research Poll commissioned by the Western Standard shows opposition to continued lockdowns and other COVID-19 restrictions are on the rise, and there are sharp divisions in the province over the issue..Of the 1,010 Albertans surveyed, 52% said that they supported continued lockdowns and 45% said they should be ended immediately..While those in support had a slight edge in overall support, the intensity of those who were fiercely opposed was more than twice that of those who were strongly supportive..The poll was conducted between May 19-20, 2021 with a scientifically-weighted sample size of 1,010 adults living in Alberta. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cell phones and the results have a margin of error of +/- 3% with a confidence level of 95%..Most of those who said they were opposed (25%) agreed “The lockdown and all restrictions should be ended immediately,” and another 20% agreed with the statement: “The lockdown should end immediately with some restrictions to be kept in place temporarily.”.The 52% of survey respondents who said they supported continued lockdowns were markedly less adamant. Of those respondents, 41% agreed: “The lockdown and all restrictions should continue until Public Health officials say it is safe,” while just 11% agreed with the statement: “The lockdown and all restrictions should continue until COVID−19 vaccination of the entire Alberta population.”.While the proportion of Albertans supporting continued lockdowns continues to hold a slim majority, that majority has slipped markedly since the same questions were polled in early January 2021. That poll showed that a combination of hardcore and softcore lockdown supporters added up to 57%, now down to 52%.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-Jan-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns, Jan and May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .By contrast, combined hardcore and softcore lockdown opponents have increased from 39% to 45%. Of note is the massive increase in hardcore opposition from just 12% in January, to 25% in May..Support for, and opposition to, lockdowns also cuts clearly along partisan lines..Among current NDP voters, 85.3% said that lockdowns should continue, including 18.7% who were hard pro-lockdown. Just 11.8% of NDP voters support ending lockdowns..Among current UCP voters, 55.3% said they were opposed to continued lockdowns, including 25.4% who were hard anti-lockdown. This number is significantly higher among those who voted UCP in 2019, however, with a combined 62.6%, including 38.3% who are hard anti-lockdown supporters..Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi pointed to Alberta Premier Kenney’s COVID-19 policies as a key driver of plummeting UCP support.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-parties-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns by party voters, May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .“It’s a near-impossible task for Jason Kenney in terms of how he handles the pandemic,” said Maggi. “When we look at why people don’t approve of how he’s handling [COVID-19], you have a mix of people on the left who say he’s not strict enough, and people on the right who say the lockdown must end. That’s what’s driving that vote.”.That poll released yesterday saw the UCP trailing the NDP in second place, at 28% and 35% respectively, and the Wildrose Independence Party growing to 16% support..Wildrose voters were even more likely than UCP voters to oppose continued lockdowns, with a combined 88.3%, and 69% which were hard anti-lockdown. Just 11.7% of Wildrose voters said they support continued lockdowns..The poll’s data also found deep regional divisions across Alberta..Support for continued lockdowns was highest in Edmonton, with a combined 63.8%, and 33.7% opposed. In Calgary, support for lockdowns was still in the majority at 58.7%, but a growing 37.5% in opposition..The “rest of Alberta” – which includes both rural areas and smaller urban areas – deviated sharply from the two big cities. There, 58.9% said the lockdown should end immediately, with 36.5% in the hard anti-lockdown camp. Pro-lockdown support in the “rest of Alberta” made up 37.7%.. Alberta Lockdown Poll-regions-May 2021Alberta support and opposition to lockdowns by region, May 2021 Shareable with credit and hyperlink. .The debate over COVID-19 lockdowns and other restrictions is driving a large shift in the Alberta political landscape. In the same survey, Albertans were asked which party they voted for in the last election, and which party they would vote for if an election were held today..The NDP lead the pack with 35% among decided and leaning voters. The UCP is in second with 28%, and the Wildrose Independence Party has pushed itself into a competitive third place at 16%. .Another 7% of voters were undecided; with 5% for the Alberta Party, 3% for the Liberals, 2% for the Greens, and 3% for “other.” .Maggi said Alberta’s political environment is quickly becoming a three-party system as the unpopularity of Kenney weighs heavily on UCP support..“My advice federally to Conservatives is to not be within a mile of Jason Kenney right now. His performance on the pandemic – on both ends of the spectrum – is putting a taint on all Conservatives. This is causing an uptick in Maverick Party support, and Wildrose support..“Being a three-way race [outside the two big cities], you’re talking three seats for Wildrose Independence, minimum. I’m sure some of the modellers are going to look at these numbers and release seat projections. The more important number is those in Calgary and Edmonton, because they come one-for-one from UCP support.”. POLL: Large majority of Albertans disapprove of Kenney’s pandemic performance .The UCP, NDP and Wildrose are locked in a tight three-way race outside of the two big cities, at 31.7%, 23.0%, and 23.1% respectively..“The most surprising number provincially is the Wildrose Independence support in both Edmonton and Calgary being in the double digits”, said Maggi. .The NDP hold a slight edge in Calgary at 36.6%, followed closely by the UCP at 32.6%, and the Wildrose at 10%..In Edmonton, the NDP have a commanding lead at 49.1%, far ahead of the UCP at 19.4%, and the Wildrose at 12.3%..While the NDP leads province-wide, the numbers don’t necessarily point to an NDP majority government..“The only path to a majority (NDP leader) Rachel Notley has is a sweep of Edmonton, a sweep of Calgary, and a handful of rural seats.” .Asked what’s driving the shift in party support, Maggi pointed primarily to Kenney’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. .“It’s the performance of the UCP on the pandemic. When very few strongly approve of Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, and a huge number strongly disapprove. There’s your answer right there.”.Just 48% of those who voted UCP in 2019 say they intend to do so again. The NDP has held 86.9% of its 2019 support, and picked up 12.3% of those who voted UCP, and 31.3% of those who voted Alberta Party. .The Wildrose has consolidated much of the support from the smaller rightist/sovereigntist parties in 2019, and picked up 23.7% of those who voted UCP, and 23.1% of those who voted Alberta Party. The Alberta Party has retained just 35.2% of those who voted for them in 2019. .Maggi was not optimistic when asked if Kenney can reclaim most of the wayward Wildrose voters..“It’s hard to say right now. I’d have to see what things look like in a year. But when you look at how many want Kenney to step down as premier, including those who voted UCP, it didn’t all go to the Wildrose, but some has gone to the NDP..“Once a vote intention changes like that, it tends to be sticky. It’s hard to win it back. When a party is losing moderates to the NDP, and conservatives to the Wildrose, it’s hard to imagine coming out of that nosedive. It’s a pretty daunting task.”.Maggi says the news could get worse for Kenney once Wildrose elected a permanent leader and develops a personal brand, “but it depends on who that leader is.” .The Wildrose Independence Party is currently holding a leadership race with the only declared candidate so far Paul Hinman, the founding leader of the original Wildrose Alliance Party. As the only candidate in the race, he will face an up-or-down vote by party members on August 28..Growing tension in the UCP bubbled to the surface when 17 UCP MLAs signed an open letter condemning Kenney for putting Alberta back under a third lockdown. Kenney’s dismissal of the letter led to a series of leaks from the UCP caucus, with several MLAs telling the Western Standard the premier threatened them with an early election if they did not have confidence in his leadership..Soon after a rogue rodeo in Bowden, Alta. to protest the third lockdown, UCP MLAs told the Western Standard Kenney said in reference to the attendees, ““If they are our base, I want a new base.”.Kenney denied the story as “fake news” and said the comments were only referring to people making death threats against him, but UCP MLAs told the Western Standard Kenney was “lying.”.Last week Kenney moved to expel two rebel MLAs from the UCP Caucus after Todd Loewen published a letter calling for the premier’s resignation. .The move comes as the caucus and party has been wracked by internal infighting over issues of Kenney’s “Fair Deal Panel,” and most significantly the government’s reaction to COVID-19..Download the poll’s full data tables and methodology here.Download.Western Standard Staff.news@westernstandardonline.com