EXCLUSIVE POLL: Smith’s UCP holds eight-point lead over Nenshi's NDP

CALGARY — In an exclusive poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for the Western Standard, 48% of decided Alberta voters surveyed said they would back Premier Danielle Smith and her UCP government if a provincial election were held today.Smith holds an eight-point lead over Naheed Nenshi’s NDP, which came in second at 40% of decided voters.The Alberta Liberal Party came in third at 6%, with Peter Guthrie’s fledgling Progressive Tory Party receiving 3% of the decided vote. Two percent of those polled said they would choose another party not listed, and Cameron Davies’ Republican Party of Alberta took 1%.If undecided voters were included, they accounted for 17% of all those surveyed..The poll shows a sharp divide along age, gender, geography, and education lines.Younger voters aged 18 to 34 leaned slightly toward the NDP, with 44% support compared to 42% for the UCP — making it the only age bracket where Nenshi’s party holds an edge.The UCP’s main strength is among voters aged 35 to 49 (51.5%) and those aged 50 to 64 (50.9%), suggesting the party’s core support is concentrated among middle-aged Albertans.In those same age groups, the NDP trailed at 38.3% and 37.9%, respectively.Among seniors 65 and older, the race is somewhat closer, with the UCP at 47.3% and the NDP at 40.2%. Alberta Liberal support was highest in the 65-plus category at 6.5%.A significant gender divide is also evident. The UCP holds a commanding advantage among men at 55.9%, while trailing among women at 41.1%, compared to 46.3% support for the NDP among female voters.“We usually see a gender divide in most polls across parties,” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research said. “Certainly when we look at Liberal versus Conservative federally, or Conservative versus NDP provincially, we would expect to see this kind of divide.”Regionally, the numbers reinforce Alberta’s familiar political map. The UCP dominates outside the major cities, posting 55.4% support in the rest of Alberta, with the NDP trailing at 29.4%.In Edmonton, however, the NDP leads by nearly ten percentage points at 48.9%.Calgary remains predominantly supportive of the UCP, with 50% backing Premier Smith’s government, while the NDP sits at 41.6%..Mainstreet poll shows Liberals on track to win ZERO seats in Ontario.Maggi said the Calgary–Edmonton divide is also consistent with historical trends.“Edmonton tends to be more NDP-friendly,” he said. “I think there may have been some hope that Nenshi would do better, given that he was the former mayor of Calgary, but Calgary does tend to be a little more conservative than Edmonton.”The poll also highlights an education divide. Decided high school- and college-educated voters lean predominantly toward the Conservatives, at 52.4% and 51.1%, respectively.University-educated voters lean heavily toward the NDP at 52.3%, while only 39.4% support the UCP.Interestingly, 8.2% of high school-educated voters supported John Roggeveen’s Liberal Party, while Guthrie’s Progressive Tories scored highest among university-educated voters at 4.2%.The survey was conducted from February 10 to 12, 2026, with a sample of 1,504 adults aged 18 and older living in Alberta and was intended to represent the voting population.The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Smith’s UCP holds eight-point lead over Nenshi's NDP

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