The Alberta United Conservative Party would lose a few battleground seats to the NDP in the Calgary and Edmonton areas if an election happened now, according to polls conducted by Sovereign North Research and provided to the Western Standard. .The polls released Friday were conducted in eight ridings — seven of them considered battlegrounds by various politicos — with sample sizes of a few hundred people each. .The closest race the polls looked at was in Calgary-Peigan, where UCP candidate Tanya Fir and NDP candidate Denis Ram were tied at 42% support. While projections indicated this seat would stay blue, this poll contradicts that. .Subsequent to the NDP was undecided (12%). This was followed by other (3%) and the Alberta Greens (1%). . Calgary-Peigan raceCalgary-Peigan .The second closest race the polls examined was in the heavily ethnic northeast riding of Calgary-Cross, with NDP candidate Gurinder Singh Gill eking out a win with 38%. Alberta UCP candidate Mickey Amery would come in second place (37%)..After the NDP would be undecided (13%). The Alberta Party, Greens, and other would tie for fourth place (4%). .Calgary-Cross is a bellwether riding, as it went NDP in 2015 and UCP in 2019. Amery won the riding handedly in 2019, but he faces a more serious challenge now along with other candidates in northern Calgary. . Calgary-Cross raceCalgary-Cross .NDP candidate Nathan Ip would flip Edmonton-South West from UCP rival Kaycee Madu (42% to 38%). Madu — who served as deputy premier — stands the best chance out of all of the UCP’s candidates of having some blue in Edmonton. .However, the projection is within the margin of error, so there is a chance he could hold onto the seat. Ip could face problems because he once called for the Catholic school system to be abolished. .NDP candidate Michael Lisboa-Smith would win against his UCP rival Rajan Sawhney (44% to 39%) in Calgary-North West. Sawhney left her initial riding of Calgary-North East because she faced a serious nomination challenge and possible defeat in the election, opting to move to what was considered a safer seat. .Sawhney has served in a number of cabinet portfolios during her term. While she ran in the UCP leadership race, she was eliminated early on. .UCP candidate Nate Glubish — who was an early supporter of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — would hold onto Strathcona-Sherwood Park (47% to 37%). In the Edmonton-area riding of Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, UCP candidate Searle Turton would keep it blue (46% to 33%).. Strathcona-Sherwood ParkStrathcona-Sherwood Park .In one of the few battleground ridings outside of the Calgary and Edmonton areas many polls indicate is a tight race, UCP candidate Scott Sinclair is set to hold onto Lesser Slave Lake (49%). NDP candidate Danielle Larivee would finish far behind in second place (25%). .Close to one-fifth of Lesser Slave Lake voters are undecided. There are 4% who would vote Green, and 3% would go for the Alberta Party and another option. .Unsurprisingly, the race with the widest lead for the UCP was for candidate Tany Yao in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo (49%). NDP candidate Tanika Chaisson is trailing in second place (22%). .One-fifth of voters are undecided. Meanwhile, the Alberta Party is at 5%, other is 4%, and the Greens are 1%. . Fort McMurrayFort McMurray-Wood Buffalo .The UCP would form a majority government with fewer seats than it had in 2019 if an election took place right now, according to Wednesday projections from 338Canada. .READ MORE: Projections show Alberta UCP winning smaller majority government.The UCP would win 49 seats, a decrease from 63 in 2019, according to the projections. They said the NDP would garner 38 seats, an increase of 24 in 2019. .No other parties would win a seat in the Alberta Legislature. The other parties the projections cited were the Alberta Party and the Greens. .The Sovereign North Research polls were conducted through landlines and cellphones between May 10 to 17 with representative randomized samples from these ridings. The margin of errors have a wide range of percentages, but they are accurate 19 times out of 20.
