The average Canadian family can expect to pay $1,065 more for groceries in 2023, according to Canada's Food Price Report 2023.."We were hoping to have better news for Canadians given the difficulties experienced in 2022, but our models tell us a different story,” said the report, released on Monday..The report claims an average family of four will spend up to $16,288.41 per year on food, an increase of up to $1,065.60 from what was observed in 2022. .“To say that it’s been a challenging year for Canadians at the grocery store would be an understatement,” says Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, project lead and director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University..Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) is an annual collaboration between research partners Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. The team uses historical data sources, machine-learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to make predictions about Canadian food prices in the coming year..According to the report, Canadians saw the highest rate of food inflation since the 1980s due to supply chain disruptions and labour shortages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. "Adverse climate events, rising geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and a falling Canadian dollar all contribute to retail food prices," the report added..The report said a trifecta of climate change, high transportation costs and higher oil prices will continue raising the cost of foods in 2023..This meant for many Canadians, their food choices were motivated by a desire to save money at the grocery store. More consumers attempted to cut costs by using coupons and weekly flyers, buying in bulk, and using food saving apps..The report also found that 47% of Canadians purchased cheaper alternatives, brands, or items to adjust their spending in the face of higher inflation. Meanwhile, Food Banks Canada reported that there were nearly 1.5 million visits in 2022, their highest use in the month of March in history..While last year’s CFPR predicted an overall food price increase of between 5% and 7% in 2022, the current rate for food price increases exceeded that prediction, at 10.3% as of September 2022. "At 7%, our forecast a year ago was considered by many to be alarmist, yet here we are with a food inflation rate above 10%" the report said..The War in Ukraine has also impacted the production and supply of three crucial commodities: wheat, sunflower and fertilizers. Russia and Ukraine supply 27% of global wheat exports, while Russia is the world's largest supplier of fertilizer, the report noted..Despite this conflict, the CFPR noted that North America is in a "food security bubble," with most shelves at our grocery stores full of food. "Few of us can appreciate what other parts of the world are experiencing," it said..READ MORE: Experts warn of affordability crisis with only 10 weeks of wheat supplies left worldwide.While the report noted that climate change could reduce crop yields and subsequently increase food prices, it claimed the Canadian government's carbon tax will increase food-related production and transportation costs. It said these costs "may be passed on to the consumer as producers try to remain profitable." .Despite these alarming food price predictions, report author Dr. Simon Somogyi of the University of Guelph said there may be some good news. "Based on our findings, the increases we have predicted are still quite high, but not as high as the increases for 2022," he said..“That may be cold comfort for Canadians, as food prices are already high, but if inflation can come down due to Bank of Canada interest rate changes, oil prices remain stable and the Canadian dollar remains strong against the US dollar, it’s possible that we could see price increases for 2023 on the lower end of 5% or below.”
