Due to a poor 2021 harvest, sky-high fertilizer costs, supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine, the world only has a 10-week supply of wheat remaining.."It's a perfect playbook for a global food crisis, for sure. This will be the most expensive feeding season in history," said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of management and food security expert at the School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University in Halifax..When it comes to food shortages, Russia's invasion of Ukraine "added fuel to a fire that was long burning,” according to Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm, Gro Intelligence. .On May 19, Menker told the United Nations Security Council price increases have made another 400 million people worldwide "food-insecure," and there is currently only 10 weeks of global wheat consumption sitting in inventory around the world.."I share this because we believe it’s important for you all to understand even if the war were to end tomorrow, our food security problem isn’t going away anytime soon without concerted action," she said..Ukraine and Russia both produce close to about a third of the world’s wheat, while Russia, which has been heavily sanctioned by Western countries, is a key exporter of fertilizer..Charlebois said he's "not overly surprised" by the news, given the poor harvests in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer of 2021.."All we can hope for this year is a bumper crop in critical parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including Canada and the US," he said..Charlebois pointed out US President Joe Biden recently announced policies to assist suffering farmers, such as expanded insurance for double-cropping, increased technical assistance to farmers, and double the funding to produce domestic fertilizers..But Charlebois said the Canadian government has not implemented similar measures. He said Canadian farmers are facing "awkward surcharges" because of Western sanctions on Russian fertilizer that are "discouraging them from planting as much in the ground.".He also said Canadians shouldn't expect to see food shortages, but affordability will become an issue for many.."We may run out of certain things, but generally speaking, I just think it's just affordability that's going to be compromised as a result of what's happening.".Joseph W. Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said wheat supplies by every available metric are at their lowest levels since the financial crisis of 2008..Glauber said while the price of wheat has a small impact on bread prices, distribution and energy costs have skyrocketed. .And, for North American markets, Glauber said a large "concern" is that the US and Canadian wheat crop to be harvested over the next few months is in "pretty poor shape."."In Canada, a lot of our spring wheat has gotten off to a slow start and much of it has still not been planted. So that will be something the market is watching very closely," he said.
Due to a poor 2021 harvest, sky-high fertilizer costs, supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine, the world only has a 10-week supply of wheat remaining.."It's a perfect playbook for a global food crisis, for sure. This will be the most expensive feeding season in history," said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of management and food security expert at the School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University in Halifax..When it comes to food shortages, Russia's invasion of Ukraine "added fuel to a fire that was long burning,” according to Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm, Gro Intelligence. .On May 19, Menker told the United Nations Security Council price increases have made another 400 million people worldwide "food-insecure," and there is currently only 10 weeks of global wheat consumption sitting in inventory around the world.."I share this because we believe it’s important for you all to understand even if the war were to end tomorrow, our food security problem isn’t going away anytime soon without concerted action," she said..Ukraine and Russia both produce close to about a third of the world’s wheat, while Russia, which has been heavily sanctioned by Western countries, is a key exporter of fertilizer..Charlebois said he's "not overly surprised" by the news, given the poor harvests in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer of 2021.."All we can hope for this year is a bumper crop in critical parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including Canada and the US," he said..Charlebois pointed out US President Joe Biden recently announced policies to assist suffering farmers, such as expanded insurance for double-cropping, increased technical assistance to farmers, and double the funding to produce domestic fertilizers..But Charlebois said the Canadian government has not implemented similar measures. He said Canadian farmers are facing "awkward surcharges" because of Western sanctions on Russian fertilizer that are "discouraging them from planting as much in the ground.".He also said Canadians shouldn't expect to see food shortages, but affordability will become an issue for many.."We may run out of certain things, but generally speaking, I just think it's just affordability that's going to be compromised as a result of what's happening.".Joseph W. Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said wheat supplies by every available metric are at their lowest levels since the financial crisis of 2008..Glauber said while the price of wheat has a small impact on bread prices, distribution and energy costs have skyrocketed. .And, for North American markets, Glauber said a large "concern" is that the US and Canadian wheat crop to be harvested over the next few months is in "pretty poor shape."."In Canada, a lot of our spring wheat has gotten off to a slow start and much of it has still not been planted. So that will be something the market is watching very closely," he said.
