Famous geopolitical strategist warns independent Alberta would be forced to rely on US

BANFF — Famous American geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan believes an independent Alberta would be heavily reliant on the United States for trade, capital and market access and urged independence supporters to consider what would come after leaving Canada.Speaking at an event in Banff on Thursday, Zeihan, a former vice president at the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor, compared the independence movement to Brexit, saying the possibility of a “Yes” vote on independence succeeding could be “either a wonderful idea or a horrible idea.”Citing Alberta’s strongest demographics in Canada, Zeihan said there could be an economic case for leaving Confederation, but that it would not be a one-step process.“[The British] left the world's second-largest market, and then they stopped, and they have become what they have always feared: a middle power,” Zeihan said.“They haven't moved on, and the idea of negotiating entrance into other trade blocs hasn't happened. Why? Because they have an inaccurate view of what those terms would be.”He pointed to the United Kingdom subsequently discovering that it would have to make major concessions to the United States involving agriculture, aviation, finance and other sectors when negotiators went to Washington..WAGNER: Alberta statehood...from the Canadian frying pan into the American fire.“The same thing will happen if [Alberta secedes],” he said.“You'll be landlocked. You'll have no options to send anything anywhere unless you cut a deal with a new power, and theonly power is the United States, and the United States will have certain conditions.”Zeihan added that, as with the negotiations after Brexit, Americans could demand Alberta align itself with US financial, technological and regulatory systems as the price for receiving access to the American market.“Make no mistake, choosing not to be Canadian means choosing to be American,” he said.“If you’re going to do that, I feel, as a neighbour, that I should say out loud that you should do it with your eyes wide open. Moving out of one association requires you to join another one. Just let the buyer beware.”However, Zeihan did say the financial burden imposed on Alberta by Ottawa is by far the strongest argument for independence.“If Alberta left Canada and applied for statehood, even in today's environment, I think it would be a slam dunk,” he said, adding that the application would be quickly ratified by the US.He also estimated — under a hypothetical scenario — that Alberta’s net transfers to other jurisdictions could fall by approximately two-thirds and predicted Alberta’s departure would place enormous pressure on the rest of Canada.If Alberta left, Zeihan said Saskatchewan would then become Canada’s richest and youngest province, but since it would lack Alberta’s population and economic weight, it would consequently struggle to remain in Canada and would likely follow in Alberta’s footsteps and join the US.Following the loss of the fiscal contributions of both Prairie provinces, Ontario and Quebec would then be forced to renegotiate the financial arrangements within a smaller Confederation..Supreme Court in Grande Prairie?: APP proposes distributing an independent Alberta's government across the nation.“Every deal that they have ever made that underpins the existence of the country is now non-serviceable, and they have to find something fundamentally new,” he said.Asked if Canada could operate more effectively as a whole, providing a greater net benefit to all provinces, under a European Union model of sovereign nations sharing a currency and being responsible for their own trade, Zeihan said the current Confederation already resembles the European model.“The current Canadian model is the EU model, and that's why it's not working very well,” he stated.“You're one of the very few confederations in world history where the provinces actually have more power than the national government.”Zeihan added that Canada would need to become more centralized to make decisions efficiently and wield greater international influence, which would conflict with demands for increased autonomy from Alberta and Quebec.“If you want to be Canada, you need to federalize for smooth decision-making, but that's not what Alberta wants,” Zeihan said.“If you as Alberta want any degree of autonomy, I just think it's a death sentence. But if you want Canada to be able to punch at its weight, Alberta has to fade. That's the ugly situation that's in front of you.”

Famous geopolitical strategist warns independent Alberta would be forced to rely on US

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