Skilled trades are expected to remain resilient even as automation and artificial intelligence reshape the labour market, according to internal federal research, but Canadians taking part in government focus groups say they are increasingly pessimistic about the country’s employment outlook and the federal government’s direction on jobs.Blacklock's Reporter says a Privy Council report based on nationwide qualitative research found that many participants believe Canada’s job market will weaken over the next five years, with concerns centred on rising automation across multiple industries.“Thinking five years from now, participants were asked whether they felt the Canadian job market would be better, worse or about the same,” the report said. “On balance, several expected that it would worsen with a number expressing concerns about the impact that the increased use of automation technologies and artificial intelligence would have on a wide range of sectors.”The findings, drawn from the report Continuous Qualitative Data Collection Of Canadians’ Views, suggest unease about how rapidly evolving technology could reshape work, particularly in hands-on sectors.“Specific to the trades, a number worried about the rising use of innovative technologies in their sectors that allowed for specialized tasks such as pouring concrete to be performed without human input,” the report said. “Among these participants, it was thought this could ultimately lead to employers requiring fewer tradespeople going forward.”Despite those concerns, participants still pointed to the trades as a comparatively stable career path over the longer term. .Looking ahead five to 10 years, many said they expected continued demand for physically intensive skilled labour even as other parts of the economy slowed.“While believing the overall employment market might weaken, many believed there would be continued demand for skills in the trades and especially those that required physical labour such as bricklaying, installing drywall, repairing electric circuits and plumbing,” the report said.Some participants also pointed to demographics as a potential buffer against job losses in the sector, noting that a significant portion of the trades workforce is approaching retirement.“A number also believed that, given their perception that a large proportion of those working in the trades were getting closer to retirement, there would likely be a surge in demand for tradespeople in the coming years in order to replace the aging workforce,” the report said. “Asked how confident they were in their ability to have a good job in the future Canadian economy, all reported feeling highly confident.”However, confidence in individual employability did not translate into confidence in government direction. When asked about federal job-creation policy, many participants said Ottawa was off track.“Discussing whether they felt the federal government was on the right track or wrong track when it came to creating good jobs for Canadians, a number believed it was headed in the wrong direction,” researchers wrote.The focus group findings were commissioned under a $1.6 million contract with Toronto-based polling firm The Strategic Counsel..The report also revisited earlier federal forecasting work, including a 2012 Department of Industry memo titled Skills Shortages In Canadian Manufacturing Industries, which attempted to predict which occupations would grow or decline by the 2020s.The memo projected declining demand for a broad range of jobs, including archivists, cabinetmakers, carpenters, cashiers, chefs, computer coders, fishing captains, heavy equipment operators, jewellers, kitchen helpers, librarians, longshoremen, machinists, plasterers, receptionists, tailors and upholsterers.At the same time, it identified expected growth in professions such as actuaries, architects, dentists, firefighters, human resources officers, land surveyors, lawyers, mathematicians, nurses, optometrists, police officers, physicians, statisticians, veterinarians and urban planners.“As employers face tighter labour markets in the future, competition for skills will intensify,” the 2012 memo said. “There will likely be pressure on industries to invest more in workplace training, improve workers’ compensation and provide flexible work arrangements, ensure youth are acquiring the right education and skills and recruit from abroad and from regions in Canada with high unemployment rates.”
